The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Property markets are headed for trouble as the US economy slows and interest rates stay high, according to Hines, the global real estate investment manager.“We will probably see a bigger wave of assets in distress,” Alfonso Munk, who runs the firm’s debt business, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “What I’m worried about is the operating distress if we get into economic headwinds.” Munk and Alamutu also discuss investment opportunities and risks by property type, region and country, as well as the impact of the trade war on real estate markets worldwide.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marty Fridson, CEO of Fridson Vision High Yield Strategy and a Hall of Fame inductee in fixed income, shares insights on the future of high-yield bonds amidst a looming recession. He predicts an uptick in corporate debt distress, with the high-yield index potentially reaching 1,000 basis points. The discussion covers energy sector bond opportunities, rising default rates, and shifting credit ratings. Fridson also addresses the impact of economic uncertainties and Federal Reserve policies on investor strategies and market dynamics.

Risky corporate debt markets have room to fall further to reflect the damage of ongoing trade wars, according to BlackRock, the $11.6 trillion money manager. “We’re likely to see spreads widen from here as we see further deterioration in risk assets,” Mitch Garfin, the firm’s co-head of leveraged finance, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “If this uncertainty continues for another quarter, two quarters, three quarters — that could lead to a more significant downturn.” Garfin and Schiffman also discuss private credit relative value, distressed exchanges, technology sector opportunities, portfolio trading and auto sector risk.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Holly Etlin, Managing Director at AlixPartners with over 30 years of restructuring experience, shares insights on the retail crisis exacerbated by tariff chaos. Retailers are struggling with order cancellations and pricing amidst rising bankruptcy costs. Etlin discusses how asset-based loans are becoming critical lifelines and highlights the turnaround strategies of Tailored Brands. The conversation delves into the pressures of demand forecasting and the complexities of negotiations in a volatile market, emphasizing the need for resilience and adaptability.

Rudi Singh, founder of Aptior Capital, dives into the chaos of distressed debt markets with experts Giulia Morpurgo and Tolu Alamutu. With nearly two decades of experience, Singh highlights how global market volatility can uncover golden opportunities in companies laden with debt. The trio discusses the shift of US investors to Europe, navigating complex negotiations in corporate restructurings, and the impact of macroeconomic factors on secured debt. They also touch on overlooked European investments and the rising influence of AI and climate change on market strategies.

John Kerschner, Head of U.S. Securitized Products at Janus Henderson, shares insights on private credit's entry into ETFs. He argues that retail investors may not be ready due to concerns over liquidity and real economic challenges. The conversation dives into the evolving economy, touching on recession risks and the consumer influence on growth. Kerschner also discusses the dynamics of collateralized loan obligations, emphasizing their performance during the pandemic and cautioning about the distinct risks associated with private credit investments.

Lisa Coleman, head of global investment-grade corporate credit at JPMorgan Asset Management, shares her insights on rising credit risks amid escalating trade wars. Managing $73 billion in assets, she highlights the deteriorating technicals in credit markets and emphasizes the need for higher returns due to uncertainty. Interesting discussions include the shifting landscape for U.S. companies, investment opportunities in healthcare and consumer sectors, and the evolving sentiment around different asset classes as recession fears loom.

Winnie Cisar, the global head of strategy at CreditSights, dives into the shifting landscape of corporate credit investments as global portfolio managers look beyond the US for opportunities amid rising volatility. She discusses the implications of trade wars and stagflation on US borrowers while highlighting potential investments in sectors like industrials and Boeing bonds. With US exceptionalism waning, Cisar emphasizes the increasing allure of markets in China and Europe as investors adapt to new economic dynamics.

Amid heightened volatility in American capital markets, there are more attractive private debt options elsewhere, according to alternative investment manager BC Partners. “In 25 years of doing this, it’s probably the first time we’re seeing actually decent relative value in Europe,” said Ted Goldthorpe, the firm’s head of credit. “The US has always provided better relative value in every environment — that’s kind of changed,” Goldthorpe tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Besides specific European opportunities, Goldthorpe and Kakuda also discuss sports lending, the impact of tariffs on US mid-market borrowers, private loan valuations and the pipeline for acquisitions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Matthew Bass, Head of Private Alternatives at AllianceBernstein, discusses the competitive edge of private debt in today's market. He highlights how private credit remains attractive despite a surge in demand and recent interest rate changes. Bass shares insights on the continued premium private debt holds over publicly traded options and the resilience of commercial real estate. The conversation also touches on emerging opportunities in asset-based finance and the impact of exchange-traded funds on private debt dynamics.