The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Mike Dennis, co-head of European credit at Ares Management, discusses how private lenders are increasingly eyeing funding opportunities in Europe’s defense sector, amid rising geopolitical tensions. He emphasizes the need to align investments with limited partners' ESG concerns while exploring trends in the European middle market and potential expansions into Italy. Dennis highlights the resilience of private credit amidst economic uncertainty and the strategic move towards selective lending, showcasing the evolving landscape of private equity.

Oksana Aronov, Head of Market Strategy for Alternative Fixed Income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, shares her insights on navigating the turbulent credit markets. She highlights the growing struggles of junk bond firms and the complacency surrounding credit risks. Aronov emphasizes the need for hedges against potential losses and warns about companies increasing debt instead of repaying it. The discussion also covers the importance of cautious investment in these uncertain times and the implications for both high-grade and high-yield debt.

Purnima Puri, Head of Liquid Credit and a founding partner at HPS Investment Partners, dives into the promising landscape of fund finance during this engaging discussion. She highlights the significant opportunity in net-asset-value lending, particularly for private equity sponsors. Puri also addresses the challenges posed by stagflation and the evolving dynamics of private versus public credit markets. Additionally, they explore the complexities of loan modifications and the impact of AI on private credit, showcasing the resilience required in today’s financial environment.

In this discussion, Mike Best, a seasoned portfolio manager at Barings, reveals a growing interest in European corporate debt as investors shift focus from the US. He explains that concerns over US economic policies are driving this trend. The conversation dives into potential risks within European credit markets, the impact on various sectors like retail and communications, and strategies for navigating liability management. Best emphasizes the importance of careful investment amid global economic uncertainty, highlighting the unique opportunities in Europe's landscape.

Michael Gatto, Partner and head of private side businesses at Silverpoint Capital, shares insights on the precarious state of private debt funds in today's market. He warns that when the credit cycle shifts, many funds overly exposed to weak companies could face dire consequences. Gatto discusses Silver Point’s strategies for navigating private credit, emphasizing the importance of due diligence and strong lender-sponsor relationships. The conversation also touches on the evolving landscape of liability management and the complexities of LMA documents in stress investing.

Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income, shares insights on the resilience of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) in the face of rising credit risks. He classifies CLOs as 'bulletproof,' emphasizing their security during economic downturns. Discussion includes strategies for leveraging liability management and the challenges posed by growing default risks in the consumer and hospitality sectors. Peters highlights the importance of a long-term investment focus while navigating the complexities of current credit markets.

Collin Martin, Director and Fixed Income Strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, discusses the paradox of a rallying credit market amidst high default risks. He warns of investor complacency and low interest coverage ratios among vulnerable borrowers. The conversation dives into private credit risks, floating-rate and preferred debt opportunities, and how trade wars impact consumer confidence. Martin emphasizes the need for cautious investment strategies in this complex landscape, where rising defaults could challenge the current calm.

In this enlightening discussion, Savina Rizova, Co-chief Investment Officer at Dimensional Fund Advisors, shares her insights on the current state of credit markets. She argues that private credit often fails to outperform public junk debt, highlighting the importance of liquidity and transparency in public markets. Rizova also touches on Dimensional's move into mortgage-backed securities and the strategic benefits of their active ETF management. Overall, it’s a compelling look at navigating credit investments amidst market uncertainties.

Robert Dafforn, Chief Investment Officer at Polus Capital Management, discusses the looming threats in the credit markets. He warns that tariffs are pushing more companies toward default. He describes the current situation as 'foothills before the mountain,’ anticipating increased delinquencies amid high interest rates. Dafforn highlights specific sectors ripe with trouble, including chemicals and consumer goods, and suggests that distressed debt could offer 'equity-like returns' for savvy investors navigating this complex landscape.

Yield-hungry credit investors are increasingly seeking longer-dated corporate debt, just as supply is evaporating, according to Barclays. “It’s problematic,” Meghan Graper, the firm’s global head of debt capital markets, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “I worry — can we source enough assets to appeal to where the bid is gravitating, and that’s out the curve.” Graper and Kakuda also discuss the growth of private credit, value in financial sector debt, hybrid issuance, the Trump put and league table rankings for global bond underwriters.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.