How should I be positioned? with Richard Bernstein (RBA) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Nov 26, 2024
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In this insightful discussion, Richard Bernstein, Founder and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, teams up with Jason Draho, UBS CIO's Head of Asset Allocation Americas. They delve into the macroeconomic landscape as 2025 approaches, examining the U.S. economy's resilience despite inflation. The duo explores the impact of rising interest rates on markets, advocating for a focus on value stocks. They also debate gold versus cryptocurrencies, suggesting gold as a stable investment. Join them for a deep dive into strategic positioning in uncertain times!
The U.S. economy is projected to maintain a healthy growth trajectory into 2025, driven by strong GDP and low jobless claims.
Investment strategies are shifting towards value stocks and sector diversification to navigate the anticipated changes in interest rates and inflation.
Deep dives
U.S. Economy Health and Outlook
The current state of the U.S. economy is characterized as healthy, with projections indicating a continuous upward trajectory. GDP is tracking around 2.5%, jobless claims remain low, and the stock market is performing well, all suggesting stability rather than an impending recession. Additionally, corporate profits are increasing, which could drive further growth, contradicting fears of an economic downturn. As we look towards 2025, expectations of nominal growth reflect an optimistic view, with potential economic and fiscal stimuli enhancing the outlook.
Nominal GDP and Interest Rates
The discussion emphasizes the evolving importance of nominal GDP as a metric for economic performance and interest rates, challenging traditional focuses on real growth alone. Experts predict that with nominal GDP expected to trend around 5%, long-term interest rates will likely align with this growth rate in the coming years. This shift may lead to heightened inflation and rate volatility, creating a new economic environment that market participants must navigate. The historical relationship between nominal GDP and interest rates suggests that strategies need to adapt to this changing landscape.
Sector Performance and Investment Strategy
Investment strategies currently favor value stocks over growth, as diversification becomes increasingly important amid high concentration risks in growth-oriented investments. Overweight positions in sectors like energy, industrials, and financials reflect a tactical approach aimed at capitalizing on expected economic growth. Small caps may also benefit from rising cyclical growth, although concerns about rising rates pose potential challenges. The focus on sector performance encourages a proactive investment stance, taking into account macroeconomic indicators and trends.
Fiscal Policies and Potential Risks
Potential fiscal policies from the incoming administration are analyzed, suggesting a tendency towards stimulus measures rather than austerity. While there are risks associated with tariffs potentially inflating prices and monetary policies, the overall economic environment may still favor growth if managed effectively. Historical precedents highlight that pre-election forecasts can differ significantly from actual outcomes, prompting caution. The interplay between governmental policies and economic conditions necessitates careful monitoring for signs of policy missteps that could disrupt market confidence.
As 2025 quickly approaches, Rich rejoins Jason for a year-ahead discussion, spanning the macroeconomic environment, to markets, to the landscape across Washington DC. We also spend time reviewing investment themes in-focus, along with allocation preferences across asset classes. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Host: Daniel Cassidy
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