UBS On-Air: Market Moves
How should I be positioned? with Matt McLennan (First Eagle) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Apr 24, 2024
Matt McLennan and Jason Draho discuss the US macroeconomic environment, growth outlook, inflation, and Fed rate cuts. They also share insights on portfolio positioning preferences in a changing rate environment. Topics include nominal activities impact, bond yields analysis, current economic indicators comparison, and investment positioning in a geopolitically bifurcated world.
35:01
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Quick takeaways
- Higher interest rates can contribute to budget deficits and monetary creation, impacting nominal growth.
- Real assets like staples may provide resilience amid changing monetary dynamics, potentially sustaining value in uncertain markets.
Deep dives
Impact of Recent Market Behavior on Macroeconomic Outlook
Recent weeks have seen the market behave more rationally, with an easing of financial conditions driving an uptick in inflation prints and retail sales. However, the Fed faces challenges with interest rates above wage growth, potentially leading to a slowdown in nominal growth. The easing financial conditions have fueled an exuberance that may now be receding, with signs of slowing nominal growth in luxury goods sales and trucking activities.
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