Making Sense of the Economy in a Data Desert

Nov 7, 2025

This discussion highlights key insights from the ADP jobs report, revealing a modest job gain that may keep the Fed on hold. The impact of the government shutdown on data collection is significant, suggesting upcoming reports could be messy. They delve into the latest earnings season, showcasing strong growth despite increasing dispersion among large tech firms. The conversation also explores a shift away from low-quality 'zombie' companies, urging a focus on higher-quality stocks as market dynamics evolve.

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INSIGHT

ADP Jobs Fill A Data Void

ADP reported a gain of 42,000 jobs, slightly above expectations and partly offsetting prior declines.
ADP will publish weekly job readings, which helps amid the government data blackout.

ADVICE

Expect The Fed To Stay Cautious

Expect the Fed to stay on hold given modest job gains and persistent inflation concerns.
Prepare for only a few rate cuts next year if growth slows enough to bring inflation down.

INSIGHT

Shutdown Creates Messy Data Catch-Up

The government shutdown has halted data collection, so upcoming official releases will likely be messy.
It will take time to rebuild a consistent stream of pre-shutdown-quality data.

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In lieu of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones discuss the latest jobs report from ADP. Liz Ann addresses some recent yips in the equity market related to earnings season, and Kathy speculates on what the latest economic data means for the Fed. They also analyze the shift towards sustainable investments and away from "zombie" companies, reflecting market churn and rotation.

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