S01E01: The 85% Problem

9 snips

Sep 1, 2021

Learn why HVAC contractors are crucial for decarbonizing homes, with 85% of system replacements happening under pressure. Explore how emergency stress leads homeowners to choose quick, cheap fixes, locking in carbon systems for years. Discover the six-second electrification opportunity and the impacts of single-speed systems on comfort. Hear about the challenges contractors face with workload and scaling decarbonization efforts, and why policymakers need to engage these trades to successfully tackle climate change.

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INSIGHT

Most HVAC Replacements Happen Under Duress

About 85% of residential HVAC replacements happen under duress when systems fail in extreme weather.
Decisions made under panic favor the fastest, cheapest option and undermine long-term decarbonization.

INSIGHT

Single‑Stage Systems Fail To Match Load

Single‑stage HVAC systems dominate and deliver on/off 'bucket' heat instead of matching variable load.
Load matching (variable output) yields steadier comfort and greater efficiency but often isn't chosen under duress.

INSIGHT

A Replacement Opportunity Every Six Seconds

Roughly five million systems get replaced yearly in the U.S., which equates to a replacement opportunity every six seconds.
Each replacement is a moment to electrify homes that we mostly waste by defaulting to like‑for‑like installs.

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The road to decarbonizing every single home goes through HVAC contractors.

In North America, the perfect opportunity to decarbonize a home presents itself roughly once every six seconds when a heating or cooling equipment breaks down at someone's home. However, 85% of home heating and cooling replacements happen under duress. When equipment breaks during the warmest or coldest months of the year, homeowners making large budgetary decisions under duress default to picking the contractor offering the cheapest quote. This sets up a race to the bottom for contractors who are looking to make the fastest sale and the easiest like-for-like system replacement, locking in carbon infrastructure in a home for another 15-20 years.

(Suggedted) discussion topics for fellow Boundary Spanners:

How can I leverage this army of HVAC contractors - who are always the first point of contact for homeowners when their furnace or air conditioner or water heater breaks down - towards decarbonization?
How can I design boots-on the ground policy WITH HVAC contractors rather than design programs FOR them, from afar? Would such partnerships help pave the way for enlisting the experience, expertise and the support of HVAC contractors towards decarbonising homes?
What happens when decarbonization as a goal is layered on top of an industry that is experiencing the kind of 'race-to-the bottom system replacement under duress' dynamics? Is my policy accounting for these dynamics? If it isn’t, then is it possible that my policy is actively feeding this race to the bottom and making it worse?

Boundary Spanners is a podcast and a blog on residential decarbonization by Nate (@energysmartohio), the “blue-collar” CEO of HVAC 2.0 and Abhi (@akantamn), a “white-collar” policy researcher based in Canada. Nate and Abhi are taking tacit (unspoken) knowledge in the white and blue collar worlds and making it explicit (out loud) for residential decarbonization. Follow Boundary Spanners on Youtube (show), Substack (blog) or wherever you get your favorite podcasts from.