How Trump 2.0 could reshape US foreign policy, with the New York Times' David Sanger
Nov 23, 2024
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David Sanger, a national security expert and White House correspondent for the New York Times, discusses the potential impact of a second Trump presidency on U.S. foreign policy. He highlights how Trump's approach prioritizes loyalty over ideology and the absence of moderating influences in his cabinet. Sanger addresses the challenges facing NATO, the implications for Ukraine, and the complexities of U.S. relations with countries like China and Iran. He also considers how new appointments could reshape diplomatic strategies and global stability.
A Trump 2.0 presidency would prioritize loyalty in cabinet selections, potentially leading to more unilateral foreign policy actions without established political norms.
The approach to China may focus on tariffs and lack a clear diplomatic strategy, raising questions about long-term U.S. relations and regional security.
Deep dives
Geopolitical Landscape Under a Trump Presidency
A second Trump presidency could emerge amidst heightened global conflicts, particularly with aggressive rogue states and weakened U.S. allies. Trump's leadership might lack the stabilizing influences seen in his first term, as notable moderating figures would not be returning. This shift suggests a dramatically different foreign policy approach, potentially leading to more unilateral actions without the constraints of established political norms. The implications of such a presidency on international relations could be far-reaching, altering alliances and elevating tensions worldwide.
Changing Foreign Policy Appointments
Trump's selection of officials differs significantly from his initial term, marking a shift towards loyalty over traditional qualifications. Notably, figures like Marco Rubio have adapted their stances to align with Trump’s America First ideology after years of promoting more conventional views. The appointment of controversial figures like Matt Gaetz and Tulsi Gabbard raises concerns about their qualifications and ideological consistency regarding national security. This dynamic creates a landscape where divergent views are layered within the administration, potentially leading to internal conflicts over foreign policy strategies.
Challenges in Managing U.S.-China Relations
Trump's approach to China appears likely to prioritize tariffs as a primary strategy rather than comprehensive trade negotiations or diplomatic engagement. His remarks indicate potential reluctance to support Taiwan militarily, which contrasts with Congressional advocacy for stronger U.S. defense commitments. This inconsistency raises questions about the long-term stability of U.S.-China relations and the impact on regional security dynamics. The absence of a clear strategy could embolden China and complicate future interactions with both Taiwan and other adversaries.
Implications for Middle Eastern Policy
Trump may pursue a foreign policy strategy that strengthens ties with Gulf States and Israel while neglecting traditional diplomatic discussions around the Palestinian statehood. His administration's approach could be marked by a focus on immediate deals, such as potentially expanding the Abraham Accords, while ignoring the broader ramifications for regional stability. The complexity of the relationships in the Middle East may lead to further polarization, especially concerning Iran. Trump's inclination toward direct engagements, similar to his previous dealings with North Korea, could change the landscape of U.S. diplomacy in the region.
On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will re-assume the most powerful office in the world amidst the global backdrop of two major wars, comparatively weaker US allies, more aggressive rogue states, and a more complex and competitive international architecture. On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with New York Times national security and White House correspondent David Sanger to talk about what US foreign policy might look like under Trump 2.0.
"It's a Donald Trump administration," Sanger tells Bremmer, which means that ideological consistency is not the currency of the moment. Loyalty is the currency of the moment." Some of Trump's picks so far show how important loyalty is to him and also that he's no longer going to defer to any "adults" in the room. He wants a cabinet that empowers him rather than reining him in. Moreover, Sanger notes that Trump will be taking the reins of the world’s most powerful office with the full support of the Senate, House, and a deeply conservative Supreme Court. Oh, and those moderating guardrails—like Mattis and Kelly—from the first Trump term? Gone. In short order, the entire world will know what Trump unleashed looks like. Whether or not that's a good thing...only time will tell.