Understanding Xi Jinping's power is crucial for formulating a better China policy
China's engagement with Russia is characterized by complex dynamics and motivations
Deep dives
Understanding Xi Jinping's Power and China Policy
When analyzing US-China relations and developments within China, narratives often oversimplify the complexities. Chris Johnson, a former China analyst at the CIA, argues that a better understanding of Xi Jinping's power is crucial for formulating a better China policy. One challenge is the consolidation of power under Xi, which limits the circle of knowledge and trust within the system. Additionally, minimal leakage of reliable information due to COVID isolation and restrictions on foreign journalists further contributes to dubious narratives. It is also important to recognize the changes Xi has made in the Chinese system and the difficult operational and informational environment when assessing China's policies and intentions.
Analyzing the China-Russia Relationship
The China-Russia relationship is complex and characterized by both personal and pragmatic factors. While Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin share certain similarities in their leadership styles, the relationship is not without its challenges and distrust. China sees Russia as a strategic partner with similar interests but remains cautious about relying too heavily on Russia due to concerns about Putin's eventual departure from power and potential shifts in Russian foreign policy. While some argue that this relationship poses a threat to the international order, it is important to consider the nuanced dynamics and motivations behind China's engagement with Russia.
China's Approach to the War in Ukraine
China's posture towards the war in Ukraine is complex and not easily defined. While China benefits from US distraction and competition between the US and Russia, it does not have a vested interest in the conflict perpetuating. Chinese intelligence may recognize the weaknesses and risks of Russia's actions, leading them to be concerned about the potential failure of the Russian offensive and Ukrainian counter-offensive. However, China's cautious approach and concerns about nuclear escalation and Europe's perception of China create limitations on their involvement and influence in the conflict.
Challenges in US-China Relations and Policy
The US-China relationship is evolving into a strategic rivalry, with escalating competition and potential for conflict. While the US aims to create guardrails and constraints to manage the competition, China views these efforts as attempts to limit its rise and finds little incentive to assist in defining these boundaries. China's concerns about being portrayed as another Cold War adversary and its reluctance to rely on past agreements with the Soviet Union further complicate efforts to establish effective guardrails. The strategic rivalry intensifies as both countries navigate complex economic, security, and geopolitical challenges.
American politics and foreign policy have become consumed with the challenge from China, and the face of that challenge is Xi Jinping. But many depictions of Xi are stark black and white, portraying Xi as either an all-powerful mastermind carrying out a long-term plot for Chinese domination—or as a leader guilty of self-defeating overreach that has sent China into decline.
For Christopher Johnson, who worked for two decades as a China analyst at the CIA, the truth is in the messy middle. Today, Johnson is president and CEO of China Strategies Group and a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. He argues that a better U.S.-China policy requires a more nuanced understanding of Xi and his power.
We discuss what the spy balloon incident revealed about the U.S.-Chinese relationship, how Xi has fared since suddenly lifting China’s strict COVID-19 lockdown measures in the fall, and why Washington seems gripped by “Taiwan invasion hysteria.”
