Bet The Process Jeff and Rufus talk to Ed Miller
31 snips
Oct 26, 2023 Former professional poker player and sports betting writer Ed Miller discusses his new book on modern sports betting, including the challenges of officiating in sports and the importance of mathematical models in sports betting. They touch on building in play models, modeling end-of-game scenarios, pricing single game parlays, and provide some football picks for the week.
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Sportsbook Vulnerabilities
- Sportsbooks struggle to manage the sheer volume of betting markets, especially in-game.
- This reliance on automated models creates vulnerabilities.
In-Game Betting Strategy
- Look for in-game betting discrepancies, especially late in the game, caused by inaccurate models.
- These models often fail to account for specific player injuries or other real-time changes.
Halftime Model Reset
- Ed Miller observed that sportsbooks often use flawed in-game models, especially at the end of quarters.
- They frequently reset these models at halftime, only to revert to the flawed models in the second half.