Former professional poker player and sports betting writer Ed Miller discusses his new book on modern sports betting, including the challenges of officiating in sports and the importance of mathematical models in sports betting. They touch on building in play models, modeling end-of-game scenarios, pricing single game parlays, and provide some football picks for the week.
Sportsbooks rely on third-party content providers, creating vulnerabilities and potential modeling errors.
Bettors can exploit sportsbooks' modeling weaknesses by identifying edge cases and situations the models fail to account for.
Deep dives
The Complexity of Sports Betting
The podcast episode explores the intricate process of sports betting, with a focus on the challenges faced by sportsbooks in pricing and modeling. It discusses the various components involved in running a sportsbook, including betting engines, player account management software, and content providers. The episode highlights the limitations of models used by sportsbooks and emphasizes the importance of finding exploitable edges. It also provides insights into in-game betting and the potential for profits in single-game parlays. Overall, it offers a broad understanding of the sports betting industry and provides strategies for bettors to maximize their longevity and success.
Inefficiencies in the Betting Market
The podcast episode delves into the vulnerabilities and inefficiencies in the betting market, particularly in in-game betting and single-game parlays. It explains how sportsbooks rely on third-party content providers to fill their extensive betting menus, which can lead to potential weaknesses and modeling errors. The episode suggests that bettors can exploit these vulnerabilities by identifying edge cases and betting on scenarios that the models may not properly account for. It emphasizes the importance of looking for situations where the models default to league average or fail to adapt to specific game conditions. By understanding these inefficiencies, bettors can find valuable opportunities to profit.
Strategies for Longevity in Sports Betting
The podcast episode provides insights into strategies for bettors to increase their longevity in the sports betting world. It advises bettors to focus on betting markets that sportsbooks consider safe and difficult to beat, such as pregame points spreads and totals. By betting on these markets and sprinkling in high-edge opportunities, bettors can maintain long-term profitability. The episode also emphasizes the importance of hiding one's betting activity and avoiding patterns that may attract attention from sportsbooks. By flying under the radar and adapting to the rules of the modern sportsbook, bettors can increase their chances of long-term success.
This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus chat with Ed Miller, a former professional poker player and now sports betting writer, whose new book Interception: The Secrets Of Modern Sports Betting covers “modern sportsbooks”, how today’s oddsmakers work, and how bettors can have longevity.
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