Shailesh Gupta, Head of Structural Alpha, Simplify Asset Management
Nov 5, 2024
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Shailesh Gupta, Head of Structural Alpha at Simplify Asset Management, shares insights from his expertise in derivatives and carry strategies. He discusses the intriguing concept of "carry" in financial markets, explaining its significance in option trading. Shailesh outlines risk management lessons from the VIX products crisis and emphasizes innovative yield-enhanced ETF strategies. He also delves into navigating interest rate volatility and the dynamics of bond markets, providing listeners with a clear perspective on trading in today's challenging environment.
The concept of carry in finance is crucial for assessing income or cost dynamics when holding an asset amidst stable market conditions.
Historical events, such as the VIX crowding episode, underscore the risks associated with carry trades and the necessity for vigilant risk management.
Deep dives
Understanding Carry in Financial Markets
Carry is a crucial concept in finance that measures the income or cost associated with holding an asset when market conditions remain unchanged. The discussion delves into how carry works in various trading strategies, allowing investors to assess whether they can hold options at a discount or earn compensation by being short optionality. A significant aspect of carry is that it often implies expected returns that can be generated without relying on favorable market movements, allowing investors to earn while they wait. However, the podcast highlights that while carry can enhance returns, it also carries risks that must be carefully considered, especially when market conditions shift unexpectedly.
Risk Factors and Market Events
The podcast explores the risk associated with carry trades, referencing historical market events such as the crowding in VIX products in 2017 and the subsequent XIV event in 2018. These events illustrate how crowded trades, while attractive, can lead to significant losses if conditions change abruptly. The conversation emphasizes the necessity for investors to remain vigilant about market dynamics, as what appears to be a safe carry opportunity may conceal substantial tail risks. Understanding these risks is essential for managing portfolios effectively and avoiding catastrophic losses during market disruptions.
Real-World Examples of Carry
The concept of carry is further clarified through relatable examples, such as the implications of choosing between variable and fixed-rate contracts for home heating oil. Positive carry is exemplified through the real estate market, where rental income provides returns regardless of property value fluctuations. This insight into everyday decisions helps listeners understand how carry can manifest in various financial scenarios. Moreover, a look into the currency markets shows the mechanics of carry trades where investors capitalize on interest rate differentials, creating potential profit but also exposing them to currency risks.
Strategies for Income Enhancement
The discussion includes innovative strategies that Simplify Asset Management employs to enhance income through carry mechanisms while managing risks effectively. By designing ETFs that integrate carry strategies, such as selling options on treasuries and focusing on areas like mortgage-backed securities, investors have the opportunity to achieve higher yields while maintaining a diversified risk profile. This approach recognizes the importance of small position sizing and tailoring exposure to risk in various asset classes to ensure consistent returns. Ultimately, simplifying complex investment strategies makes them accessible to everyday investors, promoting better market efficiency.
Of all the concepts focused on throughout the discussions hosted on the Alpha Exchange, the notion of “carry” is one of my favorites. In its most basic definition, carry measures the income or cost to holding an asset in the steady state, when nothing changes. Underpinning the assessment of value in any option trade or strategy is a view on the favorability of carry at a given point in time. Can I own options for free or at least at meaningful discounts to their value? Mr. Market makes this very unlikely. Can I be especially well compensated for being short optionality? These are challenging questions, worthy of careful study. And in this context, it was a pleasure to welcome Shailesh Gupta, the Head of Structural Alpha at Simplify Asset Management to the podcast. Our conversation explores areas of carry in the market, why they exist, how they can be harvested and what can go wrong in the process. Shailesh shares his views on the pricing of interest rate volatility, where the vol risk premium has been especially high and how that fits into product design at his firm’s ETF platform. We talk also about risk – including the crowding episode in VIX products in 2017 leading into the XIV event of 2018. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Shailesh Gupta.
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