Nicholas Burns, the U.S. ambassador to China since 2022, reflects on his extensive foreign service career and the tense U.S.-China relationship. He discusses Xi Jinping's centralized power and China's ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, as well as the contrasting views of Chinese leadership on Western decline. Burns emphasizes the delicate balance of critique and connection in diplomacy, particularly regarding human rights. He also addresses the significance of Taiwanese relations and the strategic importance of fostering ties with Chinese students in America.
Xi Jinping's aggressive foreign policy aims to assert China's dominance in the Indo-Pacific, reflecting a significant shift in leadership style.
The ideological supremacy of the Communist Party under Xi has transformed it into the ultimate power source in China, overshadowing governmental functions.
The multifaceted U.S.-China competition necessitates ongoing dialogue to manage tensions and prevent crises, particularly in volatile regions like Taiwan.
Deep dives
Understanding Xi Jinping's Leadership
Xi Jinping is a highly powerful leader who has established an aggressive foreign and defense policy aimed at making China the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. His leadership style contrasts with past Chinese leaders, reflecting a significant shift toward centralizing power within the Communist Party. China's strategic initiatives include strengthening ties with authoritarian allies and contesting the international order established post-World War II. One example of this strategic focus is the Chinese Foreign Minister's annual tradition of visiting African nations, emphasizing China's intent to expand its influence globally.
The Debate on Xi Jinping's Ideology
There is an ongoing debate about whether Xi Jinping is primarily an ideologue or a pragmatist, with evidence pointing toward his deep commitment to strengthening the Communist Party's supremacy. Over the years, the Party has transformed into the ultimate source of power in China, often overshadowing the government itself. This shift is notable in Xi’s approach to governance, emphasizing adherence to ideological principles alongside practical governance. The necessity for Chinese officials to study Party texts reflects a political culture deeply rooted in ideological training, further solidifying the Party’s grip on both power and societal norms.
China's Perception of U.S. Decline
Chinese leaders have maintained a belief in the decline of the United States while professing confidence in their own rising power, a notion that may now be wavering. Despite their assertions, the strengthening of U.S. alliances and military partnerships in the Indo-Pacific challenges China's narrative of supremacy. Countries like Japan, the Philippines, and Australia are increasingly collaborating with the U.S., undermining China's claims of being the region's dominant force. Additionally, various domestic challenges, such as economic downturns and youth unemployment, further complicate China's stability and confidence in their global standing.
Economic Challenges and Policy Hesitations
China's leadership has exhibited reluctance to implement substantial stimulus measures similar to those used by the U.S. to revitalize the economy, focusing instead on high-value manufacturing. The property crisis and stagnant consumer spending have led to a deflationary environment, forcing citizens to hold onto their money instead of investing in the economy. Despite overproducing goods and exporting them at low prices, this approach has triggered international backlash, including tariffs from the U.S. and other nations. This strategy reveals a deep-seated commitment to maintaining economic growth rates without adequately addressing the foundational issues affecting the Chinese economy.
A Complex Landscape of U.S.-China Relations
The U.S.-China relationship is marked by intense competition across military, technological, economic, and human rights spheres, presenting a multifaceted challenge. The Biden administration's approach seeks to balance this competition with necessary engagement, evidenced by ongoing dialogues related to critical issues like climate change and drug trafficking. The relationship remains strained due to China's aggressive stance in areas like Taiwan and the South China Sea, alongside its support for Russia amid the Ukraine conflict. Ultimately, fostering open communication is vital to managing the volatile dynamics between the two superpowers and averting potential crises stemming from misunderstandings or miscalculations.
The United States’ relationship with China has scarcely been so contentious. Over the last several years, the two powers have butted heads over issues including trade and technology, Russia’s war on Ukraine, and Beijing’s belligerence in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Nicholas Burns has helped oversee Washington’s response to these rising tensions.
Burns has served as U.S. ambassador to China since 2022, the capstone of a four-decade career in the foreign service that has included posts as ambassador to NATO and Greece, State Department undersecretary for political affairs and spokesperson, and on the National Security Council staff on Soviet and Russian affairs. He has been in the room for some of the most consequential moments in recent U.S. foreign policy history: the fall of the Soviet Union, the 9/11 attacks, and now, the intensifying U.S.-Chinese competition.
Two years after his first conversation with editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan, Burns, in his final days as ambassador, looks back on the Biden administration’s approach to managing the relationship at this critical moment—and reflects on the need for diplomacy in the rivalry that may define the twenty-first century.
