The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Archive: The Trump Administration’s Latest Moves to Dismantle the Iran Nuclear Agreement with Peter Harrell and Richard Nephew
Jan 17, 2026
In this engaging discussion, Peter Harrell, an attorney and sanctions expert, and Richard Nephew, a senior research scholar focused on sanctions and energy policy, dive into the complexities of the Iran nuclear agreement and recent U.S. actions. They explore the implications of the Trump administration's withdrawal, the impact on Russian and European companies, and Iran's nuclear enrichment timeline. The duo addresses the challenges a new administration would face in re-entering the agreement and reflects on the strategic value of sanctions in U.S. foreign policy.
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Sanctions Shrunk Iran's Breakout Time
- After the U.S. reimposed sanctions in 2018, Iran expanded its enriched uranium stockpile and centrifuges.
- That compression reduced Iran's breakout time from about a year to a few months, increasing proliferation risk.
Waivers Ended But Outcomes Vary By Country
- The May 27 action ended waivers that let foreign firms work at sensitive Iranian nuclear sites after a 60-day wind-down.
- The practical effect depends on whether countries like Russia defy U.S. sanctions and continue projects.
Russian Defiance Undermines U.S. Leverage
- Russia has historically ignored U.S. sanctions on nuclear cooperation and likely will continue work in Iran.
- Treasury's ambiguity about waivers complicates enforcement and may blunt U.S. leverage.