Hold Your Fire! From Venezuela to Greenland? Trump’s Gunboat Diplomacy
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Jan 10, 2026 Renata Segura, Director for Latin America & Caribbean at the International Crisis Group, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, dive into the U.S. operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. They discuss the Chavista government's surprising cohesion under U.S. pressure for oil concessions. The conversation explores the implications for Cuba and broader Latin America, and questions whether a democratic transition is feasible. They also analyze the Trump administration's provocative rhetoric regarding Greenland and the potential challenges for U.S. foreign policy.
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Oil Seizure Meets Chavista Cohesion
- The U.S. seized Venezuelan oil shipments and claims 30–50 million barrels to be sold for Venezuelan benefit.
- Chavismo shows cohesion under external threat, so forcible resource grabs risk political backlash and instability.
Oil Is Political, Not Just Commercial
- Venezuelan oil is symbolic and tied to state legitimacy, so handing it to foreigners damages regime legitimacy.
- Companies demand political stability and clarity before massive investments can resume.
Cuba, China And Russia Face Different Costs
- Cuba stands to lose oil and security ties quickly, while China and Russia are less likely to intervene militarily.
- China's deep financial exposure to Venezuela makes its disengagement slower and more complex.