Kevin Cole, a former senior data scientist at PFF and the mind behind the newsletter Unexpected Points, joins the discussion to tackle early NFL overreactions. He dissects the implications of trades, comparing Bryce Young’s to the infamous Herschel Walker deal. The conversation shifts to quarterback evaluations and the slump in passing efficiency. Cole also challenges conventional thinking about what makes a successful quarterback, highlighting the struggle of non-traditional players within the evolving landscape of the NFL. Tune in for a deep dive into analytics and team dynamics!
The NFL is experiencing a decline in offensive performance metrics, largely due to improved defensive strategies limiting explosive plays.
Unexpected performances from mid-tier quarterbacks are emerging, indicating a narrowing variance in quarterback quality amidst overall offensive struggles.
Deep dives
Shifts in NFL Offensive Trends
Current trends in the NFL indicate a significant downturn in offensive performance, particularly in passing statistics, with many teams averaging under 200 yards per game. This decline has been reflected in metrics like adjusted net yards per attempt, which have reached the lowest levels recorded since 2020. The increasing difficulties offenses face seem to correlate with improvements in defensive strategies, leading to a distinctive trend where explosive plays are diminished. This shift suggests a potential long-term change in how the game is played, moving away from the previous era of offensive dominance.
Mid-Tier Quarterbacks Rising
The early weeks of the NFL season have brought unexpected standout performances from previously considered mid-tier quarterbacks, hinting at a possible elevation of their status due to the broader decline in offensive play. This phenomenon may be attributed to the narrowing of performance variance in the quarterback position, leading to less disparity between the top and lower-tier quarterbacks. The podcast suggests that this could be a result of backup quarterbacks performing well in the absence of their starters, who often miss preseason reps due to injury avoidance strategies. This situation indicates an intriguing dynamic where perceived quarterback quality may shift as overall team performance stabilizes.
Defensive Strategies Impacting Game Dynamics
A notable aspect of current NFL dynamics is that defenses are adopting new strategies focused on limiting explosive plays, which could inadvertently introduce more volatility in games. By allowing more rushing attempts while prioritizing pass defense, teams are changing not only their defensive approach but also affecting how offensive drives play out. This tactical shift could result in a greater number of third downs during drives, influencing teams' decisions to go for it on fourth down and potentially leading to higher variance outcomes. As a consequence, it could blur the lines separating performance levels of quarterbacks, complicating evaluations of player effectiveness.
Power Rankings and Team Performances
The power rankings at this early stage of the season highlight teams like the New Orleans Saints, which have improved significantly based on their strong performances in initial weeks. Their victories, particularly a dominant win against Carolina, underscore the effectiveness of their play, with metrics indicating a high success rate against formidable opponents like the Cowboys. Conversely, the Carolina Panthers have displayed alarming deficiencies, leading to discussions about their future and the potential implications for rookie quarterback Bryce Young. The conversation suggests that, despite challenges, strong evaluations of quarterbacks can emerge as they navigate through varying team performances, particularly with back-up quarterbacks being inserted into larger roles.
Wharton's Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, and Adi Wyner speak with Kevin Cole, former data scientist at PFF, about the overreactions to the start of the NFL season, QB evaluation, the decrease in stats, and more.