Macro Mondays #52 Escaping the TRAP of Sideways Markets - Guest: Mads Eberhardt
Jun 10, 2024
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Mads Eberhardt joins the hosts to discuss topics like Bitcoin ETF inflows, Mexico's election impact on the US labor market, analyzing inflation's effect on the crypto market, and trading dynamics between China and India. The conversation also touches on Mt. Gox bankruptcy, GameStop frenzy, ECB rate cuts, and recent developments in the UK's sterling repo facility.
Some college graduates display worrisome behaviors in job interviews, signaling a skills gap.
Cryptocurrency trends show high inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and concerns over Mt. Gox's impact.
Deep dives
Employers' Experience with College Graduates and Job Interviews
Employers have noted that some college graduates exhibited unusual behaviors during job interviews, such as bringing a parent along, struggling with eye contact, asking for unreasonable compensation, and even refusing to turn on the camera during virtual interviews. This trend highlights a shift in the labor market dynamics, where new graduates may lack traditional workplace skills and adaptability.
Cryptocurrency Trends: Bitcoin Flows and Mt. Gox
Recent trends in cryptocurrency show significant inflows into Bitcoin-based ETFs, with one day registering nearly $900 million in net inflow. Additionally, the history of Mt. Gox, once a major crypto trading venue that went bankrupt due to a massive hack, has resurfaced. The redistribution of the remaining Bitcoins to creditors raises concerns about a potential market impact should these assets be liquidated.
Labor Market Dynamics and Impact on Gig Economy
The US labor market is currently exhibiting a unique scenario of low hiring and firing rates, indicating a standstill in employment dynamics. Notably, the rise of tiny employers with fewer employees is becoming a significant driver of employment growth, accentuating the shift towards a gig economy. This transformation underscores a fundamental change in the traditional job market structure, emphasizing the increasing prevalence of short-term and freelance work arrangements.
Macro Mondays is back with all new charts and analysis... Andreas Steno Larsen is back to break down all the latest news, narratives, and market developments in this week’s edition of Macro Mondays. The founder and CEO of @stenoresearch is joined by his co-host, Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics at Steno Research, and special guest Mads Eberhardt, the company’s senior crypto analyst. Recorded on June 7, 2024.
Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to Macro Mondays 00:37 - Overview of the Week’s Topics 01:09 - Bitcoin Inflows Discussion 02:25 - Mount Gox Bankruptcy Update 05:30 - Meme of the Week: Jay Powell 06:39 - Central Banks Rate Cuts 09:12 - Real Vision Community Promotion 09:48 - Trump Soundbite and US Labor Market 12:48 - Transformation of the US Job Market 16:14 - Listener Feedback: Job Interview Traits 18:30 - Upcoming Week’s Focus: Liquidity and Inflation 21:22 - Liquidity Environment and Central Banks 23:01 - Impact on Crypto Market 24:19 - Portfolio Strategy: China vs. India 27:49 - Inflation Protection Strategy 29:26 - Conclusion
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