The Top Geopolitical Risks of 2025: A live conversation with Ian Bremmer and global experts
Jan 9, 2025
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Cliff Kupchan, Chairman of Eurasia Group, and Susan Glasser, New Yorker staff writer, dive into the geopolitical landscape of 2025. They discuss the potential fallout from the Trump administration's policies and the shifting power dynamics involving China and Russia. The conversation uncovers the risks of U.S.-China relations, economic tensions, and the rise of authoritarianism. With insights on global instability, nuclear ambitions in Iran, and the implications of artificial intelligence, this dialogue offers a thought-provoking look at an uncertain future.
The global geopolitical landscape is experiencing a recession, with major powers like the U.S. and China failing to align interests or support international cooperation.
Heightened instability in the Middle East, particularly in Gaza and Sudan, presents significant threats as ungoverned spaces lead to humanitarian crises and regional tensions.
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence raises urgent concerns about the need for updated regulations to prevent misuse and ensure effective governance amidst technological proliferation.
Deep dives
Geopolitical Recession and Power Dynamics
The discussion highlights a significant shift in the global geopolitical landscape, describing it as a geopolitical recession. Major powers, the U.S. and China, are failing to align their interests or support international institutions that previously promoted democracy and global cooperation. This disarray is causing other nations to adopt a defensive posture instead of leading in global governance, as they are unable to fill the leadership void left by these dominant players. The narrative suggests a troubling trend toward unilateral actions and potential conflicts, as countries grapple with a lack of effective and unified international responses.
Top Risks: Political Instability and Conflict Zones
Several political threats and conflict zones are identified as critical risks for the upcoming year, with particular attention on Mexico, ungoverned spaces, and the ongoing crises primarily in Gaza and Sudan. The new Mexican president faces daunting diplomatic challenges with the incoming Trump administration, which could strain U.S.-Mexico relations around trade and migration. The instability in regions like the Middle East showcases a growing number of ungoverned spaces, leading to worsening humanitarian crises fueled by extremism. These factors underscore the volatility in global political dynamics, potentially displacing millions and exacerbating regional tensions.
The Rise of AI and Governance Challenges
The emergence of artificial intelligence as a leading risk for 2025 reflects the rapid advancements in technology outpacing regulatory frameworks. This discussion emphasizes the critical need for effective governance to manage AI's proliferation, as the absence of such structures invites misuse and unforeseen negative consequences. Concerns about inadequate safeguards intensify when instances arise where AI technology is exploited for harmful purposes, highlighting the urgency for updated regulations that can in turn support innovation without jeopardizing safety. The need for enhanced discussions and actions surrounding AI governance is imperative to prevent it from becoming a tool for destabilization.
Economic Disruption Amid Global Uncertainty
The economic risks tied to the U.S.-China trade relationship are significant, with potential ramifications for global markets in a time marked by rising populism and economic isolationism. As two major economies focus on their internal challenges, countries around the world could face adverse effects from this inward policy stance, characterized by trade wars and high tariffs. The expectations of economic growth fueled by the U.S. may falter as import-export dynamics become convoluted, leading to increased financial pressures for emerging markets. This precarious economic landscape can create significant uncertainty, particularly for those nations relying on stable trade relations.
The G0 Landscape: Risks of Global Leadership Vacuum
The concept of a G0 world describes a landscape devoid of effective global leadership, symbolizing heightened risks stemming from a decentralized international order. This environment amplifies the influence of rogue states and strongman leaders amidst deteriorating governance structures, leading to power vacuums that could result in conflict or miscalculation. The discussion suggests that as the U.S. turns inward with a transactional approach to foreign policy, the fallout could lead to an arrangement where nations operate on a basis of self-interest, exacerbating instability. The absence of cooperative frameworks to address shared global challenges raises alarms about the potential for escalated geopolitical tensions and crises.
It's officially the new year, and 2025 will bring a whole new set of challenges as governments react to the shifting policies of the incoming Trump administration, instability in the Middle East, China’s economic weakness, and a world where the global order feels increasingly tenuous. 2025 will be a year of heightened geopolitical risks and global disorder, with the world no longer aligned with the balance of power. So what should we be paying attention to, and what’s the world’s #1 concern for the year ahead? Each year, The Eurasia Group, GZERO’s parent company, forecasts the top political risks most likely to play out over the year. On this special edition of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer analyzes the Eurasia Group's Top Risks of 2025 report with Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group’s chairman and a leader of the firm’s global macro coverage; Susan Glasser, staff writer at the New Yorker; and Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group’s head of research and managing director, United States. The conversation is moderated by Evan Solomon, GZERO Media’s publisher.
Moderator: Evan Solomon
Expert Panelists: Cliff Kupchan, Ian Bremmer, Jon Lieber, Susan Glasser