Mara Karlin, a Professor at Johns Hopkins University and a defense strategy expert, delves into the resurgence of total war and its impact on the global stage. She explores the evolving dynamics of modern warfare highlighted by the Ukraine conflict, emphasizing U.S. military strategies amidst rising tensions with China. Karlin discusses the intricacies of U.S. involvement in the Middle East, examining its influence and limitations. Finally, she underscores the critical need for technological adaptation in warfare, particularly in drone capabilities.
The resurgence of total war, exemplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, demands a comprehensive reevaluation of U.S. military strategy and deterrence approaches.
Ukraine's unexpected resilience against Russian aggression highlights the unpredictability of modern warfare and the need for adaptive military planning in complex conflict environments.
Deep dives
The Return of Total War and Shifting Geopolitical Landscape
Recent years have witnessed a resurgence of major conflicts, indicative of a new era characterized as a return of total war. Key instances include Russia's invasion of Ukraine and escalating tensions in the Middle East, which challenge the long-held belief among American policymakers that large-scale wars between states were unlikely. This shift necessitates a reevaluation of U.S. military strategy amidst increasing geopolitical complexities, particularly as relations with China grow strained. The contemporary conflicts reveal that warfare is now more comprehensive and entangled, calling into question established national security paradigms.
Unexpected Outcomes in the Ukraine Conflict
Ukraine's resilience against Russian aggression has defied expectations, highlighting a range of unexpected outcomes that have influenced the broader understanding of modern warfare. Many analysts initially presumed a swift victory for Russia would ensue; however, Ukraine has managed to not only withstand the assault but also demonstrate notable military effectiveness. Factors such as robust international support, a well-prepared military, and unexpected miscalculations by Russian forces have contributed to this outcome. This situation exemplifies the unpredictability of modern conflicts and the need for adaptive strategies in military planning.
Redefining Warfare and the Continuum of Conflict
The nature of modern warfare has blurred the lines between various types of conflict, necessitating a broader understanding of what constitutes warfare today. The evolution from narrow forms of war to comprehensive engagements has introduced complex dynamics involving state and non-state actors. For instance, in current conflicts, traditional military forces coexist alongside unconventional tactics, exemplifying the shifting demographics of battlefields. This increasing overlap between different conflict types demands greater flexibility and understanding of adversaries, necessitating a reevaluation of deterrence strategies.
Challenges of Deterrence and U.S. Foreign Policy
The challenges of deterrence in U.S. foreign policy have come to the forefront as recent conflicts, particularly the invasion of Ukraine, exemplify the complexities of preemptive strategies. Despite a robust intelligence effort to warn allies of impending threats, the failure to prevent Russia's aggression indicates a significant gap in deterrence effectiveness. Analysis suggests that future deterrence approaches must account for the changing nature of conflicts and consider how adversaries respond to U.S. strategies. The evolving geopolitical landscape necessitates a more nuanced understanding of deterrence, emphasizing the importance of alliances and international cooperation.
Over the last few years, the world has seen the outbreak of a kind of war that had long seemed like a thing of the past. There was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; a Gaza war that threatened to turn into a full Middle Eastern war, and in many ways did; growing dangers in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea; and tremendously damaging fighting in places like Sudan that get much less global attention.
Mara Karlin, a scholar of war as well as a veteran policymaker, served as the top U.S. Defense Department official overseeing strategy as these conflicts started or escalated. She is currently Professor of Practice at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and the author of several books including The Inheritance: America’s Military After Two Decades of War. She argues in an essay in Foreign Affairs that the world is seeing a return of total war—of conflicts that are more comprehensive and complex than ever before.
Karlin joins Editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan to discuss how fighting in Ukraine and the Middle East is reshaping our understanding of modern war, and what this means for U.S. military strategy—especially in the face of growing tensions with China.