The Julia La Roche Show

#167 Michael Pento: If Rates Don't Come Down Across The Yield Curve Relatively Quickly, The Economy's In For Big Trouble

May 7, 2024

Michael Pento from Pento Portfolio Strategies discusses the economy's risks, including rising inflation, debt burden, and potential GDP slowdown. Predicts Fed rate cuts and stagflation, advises on energy, metals, and gold investments. Highlights impacts on housing market, equities, and bonds.

21:47

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Episode guests

Michael Pento

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Quick takeaways

Rising inflation rates burden the middle class, while unsustainable debt levels threaten the economy's stability.

Potential stagflation calls for investment in energy, base metals, and gold to hedge against economic downturn.

Deep dives

The Concerns About Inflation and the Middle Class Erosion

Michael Pinto expresses concerns about inflation rates, highlighting the 3.5% annual rate which has adverse effects on the middle class. He points out that home prices have surged by 50% since 2020, making housing unaffordable for many. Pinto emphasizes the financial strain on consumers, citing high levels of consumer debt amounting to $20 trillion. He warns of the economic challenges arising from unsustainable home prices and increasing insolvency.

Introduction

3min

Economic Challenges and Forecasts

7min

Navigating Investment Strategies in Stagflation and Deflation Environments

2min

Analyzing Scenarios for Housing Market and Economy

4min

Insights on Bond Market Bubble and Gold Market Signals

5min

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 167 to discuss the current state of the economy and the potential risks ahead.

In this episode, Pento highlights the rising inflation rate, the burden on the middle class, and the unsustainable levels of debt. Pento predicts a slowdown in GDP growth and the possibility of a negative quarter in the second half of the year. He believes that the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates and engage in quantitative easing to stimulate the economy.

Pento also discusses the potential impact on the housing market, equities, and the bond market. He suggests overweighting energy, base metals, and gold in a stagflationary environment.

Links:

https://pentoport.com/

https://twitter.com/michaelpento

00:00 Intro and welcome Michael Reno

00:54 Macro view, inflation, and the bankrupting of the middle class

4:08 If rates don’t come down the economy is in trouble

5:49 Fed rate cuts ahead this year?

8:00 Market is massively overvalued

9:36 Stagflation and how to invest in that environment

11:32 Home prices

13:50 Why Powell can’t wait to end QT now

15:23 Long-term yields might not come down

16:00 Explosion of rates in high-yield will crush the economy

17:27 Gold

20:00 Erosion of the middle class

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The Julia La Roche Show

#167 Michael Pento: If Rates Don't Come Down Across The Yield Curve Relatively Quickly, The Economy's In For Big Trouble

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

The Concerns About Inflation and the Middle Class Erosion

Potential Impact of Stagflation on Investments

The Significance of Gold and Real Interest Rates

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts