Conversations with Tyler Adam Tooze on our Financial Past and Future
May 6, 2020
Adam Tooze, a Columbia University historian, dives into the intricate dance of economic recovery and history. He discusses the perplexing decision for high-cost lockdowns during the pandemic and envisions a 'swoosh-shaped' recovery while warning about vulnerabilities in China and emerging economies. Tooze critiques Keynes' views on the Treaty of Versailles, linking it to the rise of authoritarianism in Germany. He also shares insights on writing habits and reflects on Europe's future challenges, including economic strife and the refugee crisis.
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Pandemic Response Differences
- Modern economies chose high-cost lockdowns during the 2020 pandemic.
- No similar response occurred during the 1918 Spanish flu, even at national levels.
Recovery Shape
- Adam Tooze predicts a "swoosh-shaped" recovery, not a V-shaped one, unlike after the Spanish Flu.
- He's skeptical of comparing China's recovery to the West's due to differing pandemic spread.
Chinese Financial Crisis
- A potential Chinese financial crisis could stem from real estate, leveraged companies, or shadow banking.
- The 2015-16 foreign exchange run serves as another potential model for such a crisis.
