Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado Assessing the Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program
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Jun 24, 2025 Dmitri Alperovitch chats with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear nonproliferation expert from the Middlebury Institute, about the recent damage to Iran's nuclear program. They dive into the operational status of facilities like Fordow and Natanz, the challenges of reconstituting capabilities, and the significance of highly enriched uranium. Discussing the impact of the assassinations of nuclear scientists, they explore the resilience of Iran's ambitions. Lewis examines the complexities of nuclear strategy and the potential future moves Iran might take amidst geopolitical tensions.
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Complex Iranian Nuclear Cycle
- Iran's nuclear program involves complex steps including uranium mining, conversion to gas, centrifuge production, enrichment, and weaponization.
- Most above-ground centrifuge manufacturing facilities were destroyed, but an underground one near Natanz remains intact.
Targeted Strikes and Secret Facilities
- Israeli strikes targeted enrichment facilities causing power outages and damage, but the deep facility Fordow was harder to reach.
- There is a new secret enrichment facility near Esfahan, but its status and contents remain unclear.
Uranium Enrichment Levels and Risks
- Iran can enrich uranium to various levels using essentially the same centrifuge infrastructure.
- Fordow was alarming because it was set up for 90% enrichment, weapons-grade uranium, which is easier but was never fully activated.