Rethinking Strategic Competition with China: A Conversation with Elbridge Colby
Jan 18, 2024
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Elbridge Colby, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, discusses US strategic competition with China, focusing on the PRC military threat and the need to equip allies for military deterrence. He highlights debates within the Republican party on how much to focus on China and advocates prioritizing the PRC in force planning and relationships with allies. The podcast also explores China's preparation for conflict, concerns about the Biden administration's policy in Asia, and the importance of clear public statements and a military build-up to defend Taiwan.
The United States should prioritize military deterrence and focusing on Taiwan as a principal flashpoint in the strategic competition with China.
The potential for conflict or crisis with China is high, especially considering China's military advantage and the readiness of Taiwan and the U.S.
Efforts to contain China should primarily focus on the military domain rather than economic sanctions or political activities.
Deep dives
China's potential for conflict and U.S. priorities
The main concern is the potential for conflict with China, as they believe the U.S. is seeking to contain their future economic growth. China is building a military capable of attacking and taking over Taiwan, as well as fighting the United States and Japan. There is worry about China's nuclear buildup and their preparation for potential sanctions. However, it is uncertain if China will actually initiate conflict. The urgency lies in the fact that China's military advantage in the Western Pacific is likely to peak in the coming decade. The Biden administration's policy focuses on Asia but some actions have unintended consequences, reinforcing China's perception of containment.
Risks and incidents in 2024
There are concerns about potential accidents or incidents between the U.S. and China, particularly after the Taiwan Presidential Elections and the U.S. Presidential Elections. While the Chinese military may not feel as confident as they would like to, there is still a possibility of a crisis or military conflict. The readiness of Taiwan and the U.S. is a key factor. It is hard to imagine getting through this decade without a conflict or crisis with China that may emerge due to their perception of military advantage. Taiwan serves as a focal point, but a conflict with China could have broader consequences, potentially impacting the South China Sea and other countries in the region.
Prioritizing defense and security over politics and economics
The main worry with China lies in the defense and security domain, rather than political or economic issues. Efforts to contain China through economic sanctions or soft power have proven ineffective. The key is to focus on the military balance, as that is what can push countries like China to take actions they might not otherwise consider. Distracting from the military focus by emphasizing economic sanctions or political activities may be counterproductive. The strategy should prioritize denial of defense in the Asia-Pacific region, a strong nuclear deterrent, and a cost-efficient counterterrorism effort.
Focus on China over Russia
While Russia remains problematic, the focus should squarely be on China due to its military threat and economic influence. The notion of simultaneously dealing with both China and Russia is unrealistic. China poses the most significant and consequential challenge, and efforts should be concentrated there. The increasing ties between China and Russia mean they are more likely to act collaboratively, which could further distract the United States. Dealing with the biggest problem in China will have positive ripple effects.
Divisions and perspectives within the Republican Party
Within the Republican Party, there are different views on China, but there is a consensus that China is a significant threat. The differences lie in the degree of focus and prioritization on China and the military balance. There are those who argue for a more expansive foreign policy agenda, focusing on multiple simultaneous threats. However, the fiscal constraints and political support make such aspirations unrealistic. The strategy should align with the current fiscal constraints and implementation should be feasible given the available resources.
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Elbridge Colby joins us to discuss U.S. strategic competition with China. Mr. Colby stresses that he is most worried about the PRC military threat. He advocates focusing on Taiwan as a principal flashpoint and says the United States should “speak softly and carry a big stick” by equipping allies for military deterrence rather than focusing exclusively on economic deterrence. Colby further discusses the Biden administration’s approach, emphasizing that the United States should focus more carefully on not appearing to contain China. He also shares that there is consensus among Republicans that China is a central challenge to the United States but there are debates within the party as to how much the U.S. should focus on China. He concludes by advocating for a shift towards prioritizing the PRC, both in terms of force planning and relationships with allies in the region.
Elbridge A. Colby is the founder of the Marathon Initiative, a nonprofit that focuses on American preparedness for great power competition. He is also former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Strategy and Force Development at the Department of Defense during the Trump administration and was the co-lead for the development of the 2018 National Defense Strategy. An expert on the challenges of strategic competition, Colby is also the author of The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict. This podcast was recorded on January 10, 2024.
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