Ask The Compound

Is It Time to Buy Bonds?

Sep 17, 2025
Bill Sweet, Chief Financial Officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, shares his financial wisdom, particularly about bonds and mortgages. He explains why bonds have struggled recently and the importance of yields in predicting returns. Sweet offers tailored investing advice for service members, emphasizing automation and the use of TSP. He also discusses the nuances of switching from Roth to Traditional accounts, the merits of 30-year fixed mortgages versus ARMs, and smart practices for managing HSA distributions. An enlightening discussion for anyone looking to enhance their financial game!
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ANECDOTE

2008 Job Losses Changed Risk Appetite

  • Ben and Duncan referenced a real couple who lost jobs in 2008 to explain how recessions shape risk appetite.
  • Personal experiences with job loss create long-lasting fear about recessions and risk-taking.
INSIGHT

Bond Returns Track Starting Yields

  • Bond prices fall when yields rise and vice versa, so rising rates caused large recent bond drawdowns.
  • Starting yield is the strongest predictor of long-run bond returns, so higher current yields imply better future returns.
ADVICE

Match Bond Strategy To Your Goal

  • Define what you want from fixed income: income, volatility protection, or liquidity, then choose duration and credit accordingly.
  • Be deliberate about duration, credit quality, and instruments because different bond strategies respond differently to inflation and growth.
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