The New Statesman | UK politics and culture What happens when a tyrant flees
9 snips
Dec 11, 2024 
Rajan Menon, a senior research scholar with expertise in Middle Eastern politics, Marcel Dirsus, author of 'How Tyrants Fall,' and John Jenkins, a former British ambassador to the region, dive into the dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad. They discuss the immediate chaos and celebrations following his departure, the rise of new power figures, and the complexities of governance in a post-Assad Syria. The guests also analyze the geopolitical shifts in the region and the implications for international diplomacy amid the changing dynamics.
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Assad Regime Collapse
- Assad's regime seemed stable despite a long civil war, surprising many with its sudden collapse.
- This was due to a confluence of factors, including Russia's focus on Ukraine and Israeli attacks weakening Assad's support.
HTS Origins and Evolution
- HTS, led by al-Julani, evolved from ties with al-Qaeda and ISIS, eventually controlling Idlib province.
- Al-Julani's history includes fighting in Iraq, imprisonment by the US, and shifting alliances.
Al-Julani's Transformation
- Al-Julani is attempting to rebrand himself as a more tolerant leader, potentially to gain broader acceptance.
- However, his past actions and rule in Idlib, which included repression and authoritarianism, raise doubts.
