White Coat Investor Podcast

WCI #246: Early Retirement Now

Jan 20, 2022
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ANECDOTE

From Fed To FIRE In A Decade

  • Karsten saved 50–60% of his high Fed/asset-management income and kept his lifestyle, enabling early retirement after ~10 years.
  • He retired in 2018 and first traveled the world before settling in the Northwest with family.
INSIGHT

The Four Percent Is Not One-Size-Fits-All

  • The 4% rule is misused because individual circumstances change safe withdrawal rates substantially.
  • Age, pension/social security, housing and retirement length materially alter what withdrawal rate is appropriate.
INSIGHT

Valuations Change Withdrawal Odds

  • Current market valuations matter for safe withdrawal success; historical averages can mislead when valuations are high.
  • Conditioning on cohorts with similar starting valuations shows higher conditional failure rates than Trinity Study headlines.
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