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RWH062: Bubble Warning w/ Jim Grant

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Oct 26, 2025

Guest

Jim Grant

Jim Grant, founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer and a veteran financial historian, delivers a cautionary perspective on current market exuberance. He critiques Bitcoin's safety and warns against the hype surrounding private equity. Grant predicts a crash akin to past bubbles fueled by the AI boom and highlights the persistent threat of inflation tied to human behavior. He expresses concern over gold's surging value and offers insights into Federal Reserve dynamics and global debt risks, emphasizing the importance of historical context in financial understanding.

02:07:18

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Episode notes

insights

INSIGHT

Quantum Risk To Bitcoin

David Rosenthal argued quantum computers could threaten Bitcoin by reclaiming 'lost' coins and private keys.
Jim Grant found the technical critique persuasive and sees Bitcoin's security claims as overstated.

volunteer_activism

ADVICE

Avoid Retailized Private Equity

Avoid casual enthusiasm for 'democratized' private equity products marketed to retail investors.
Jim Grant warns these offerings often mask desperation and mispriced illiquid assets.

insights

INSIGHT

AI Boom Echoes Past Bubbles

Jim Grant compares the AI investment rush to past redundant-capacity booms like railroads and fiber optics.
He expects overinvestment to likely end in a panic and a crash before productivity gains arrive.

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Why Jim Warns About Bitcoin's Safety

05:28 • 8min

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Private Equity Risks and 'Democratization' Warnings

13:22 • 21min

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AI Boom: Excessive CapEx and a Likely Crash

Conference Mood: Skepticism Among Savvy Investors

43:01 • 2min

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S&P Valuations at Historic Extremes

45:04 • 7min

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Don't Fight the Fed: Pragmatic Speculation Advice

51:53 • 2min

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How the Fed Could Change Under Political Pressure

53:43 • 5min

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Global Debt Concerns and Fiscal Fragility

58:54 • 9min

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Inflation as a Human and Structural Problem

01:08:00 • 6min

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Gold's Surge: Store of Value Versus Speculative Bubble

Prudent Portfolio Positioning: Bonds, Gold, and Special Situations

01:25:41 • 5min

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Decadent Finance and the Role of Bear Markets

01:30:15 • 3min

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Why Jim Wrote 'Friends Until the End'

01:33:15 • 1min

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Burke and Fox's Oratory and Moral Courage

01:34:33 • 12min

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The East India Company: Corporate Power and Corruption

01:47:02 • 12min

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The Personal Lives of Burke and Fox

01:59:30 • 7min

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Does History Offer Optimism About Our Future?

Friends until the End

James Grant

Friends Until the End traces the complex friendship and political alliance between Edmund Burke and Charles Fox during the eighteenth century. The book explores their shared support for the American colonies, opposition to the British slave trade, defense of religious liberty, and efforts to protect Britain's public credit. Their relationship is examined through major historical events such as the American Revolution, the impeachment of the East India Company's governor-general, and the French Revolution, which ultimately ended their political partnership and friendship. James Grant illuminates the politics and economics of their era with wit and insight, drawing lessons relevant to contemporary political divisions.

#19171

• Mentioned in 2 episodes

My Life as a Quant

Emanuel Derman

In 'My Life as a Quant', Emanuel Derman recounts his transition from academia to finance, reflecting on the application of physics models to financial markets. The book explores the cultural differences between physicists and traders, and Derman's experiences at Bell Labs and Goldman Sachs. It offers insights into the early days of quantitative finance and the challenges of adapting scientific methods to financial problems.

#62685

Bernard M. Baruch: The Adventures of a Wall Street Legend

James Grant

This book provides a comprehensive look at the life of Bernard Baruch, detailing his rise as a financier on Wall Street and his influential roles in advising U.S. presidents during World War I and World War II. It explores his strategic investment decisions and his impact on national economic policies.

#156

• Mentioned in 101 episodes

Richer, Wiser, Happier

How the World's Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life

William Green

In Richer, Wiser, Happier, William Green draws on interviews conducted over twenty-five years with many of the world’s greatest investors. The book highlights that the most successful investors are mavericks and iconoclasts who question conventional wisdom and think rationally, rigorously, and objectively. They maximize their odds of long-term success in markets and life by drawing insights from diverse fields such as neuroscience, economic history, psychology, philosophy, and more. Green explains how these investors can teach us not only how to become rich but also how to improve our thinking, decision-making, risk assessment, and resilience, and how to turn uncertainty to our advantage.

William Green chats with Jim Grant, famed editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. Here, Jim warns that a major market top is forming as exuberance inflates stocks, Bitcoin, and gold. He says it echoes past bubbles and urges extreme caution.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00:00 Intro

00:10:40 Why Jim Grant is fiercely skeptical about Bitcoin.

00:19:25 Why you should be wary of all the hype about Private Equity.

00:35:50 Why Jim expects the AI boom to end in “a panic & a crash.”

00:44:13 Why even the shrewdest speculators never know when it’s time to sell.

00:49:50 What the Federal Reserve is likely to do with interest rates.

00:57:53 Why the dollar seems poised to continue losing value.

01:04:28 Why inflation will persist, fueled by perennial flaws in human nature.

01:09:50 Why Jim loves gold but is starting to worry about its meteoric rise.

01:19:01 Why he owns some bonds, despite his grim prognosis for this asset class.

01:23:39 How bull markets attract sleazy salesmen & bear markets clear them away.

01:25:56 What inspired him to write a new book about two 18th-century heroes.

01:59:34 How studying history helps him appreciate some benefits of modern life.

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
Inquire about William Green’s ⁠⁠Richer, Wiser, Happier Masterclass⁠⁠.
Jim Grant’s website for Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.
Subscribe to Almost Daily Grant’s, a free (almost) daily commentary on financial markets.
Check out Grant’s Current Yield Podcast, which is co-hosted by Jim & his colleague Evan Lorenz.
Emanuel Derman's book, My Life as a Quant.
James Grant's book, Bernard M. Baruch: The Adventures of a Wall Street Legend.
Jim Grant's book, Friends until the End.
William Green’s book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier” – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠read the reviews of this book⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.
Follow William Green on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.
Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.
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