Alex Lawsen is an advisor at 80,000 hours, released an Introduction to Forecasting Youtube Series and has recently been thinking about forecasting AI progress, why you cannot just "update all the way bro" (discussed in my latest episode with Connor Leahy) and how to develop inside views about AI Alignment in general.

OUTLINE

(00:00) Intro

(00:31) How Alex Ended Up Making Forecasting Videos

(02:43) Why You Should Try Calibration Training

(07:25) How Alex Upskilled In Forecasting

(12:25) Why A Spider Monkey Profile Picture

(13:53) Why You Cannot Just "Update All The Way Bro"

(18:50) Why The Metaculus AGI Forecasts Dropped Twice

(24:37) How Alex’s AI Timelines Differ From Metaculus

(27:11) Maximizing Your Own Impact Using Forecasting

(33:52) What Makes A Good Forecasting Question

(41:59) What Motivated Alex To Develop Inside Views About AI

(43:26) Trying To Pass AI Alignment Ideological Turing Tests

(54:52) Why Economic Growth Curve Fitting Is Not Sufficient To Forecast AGI

(01:04:10) Additional Resources

Episode 409: The Only 5 Key Metrics You Need with Mark Fisher