Full Story Is this the end of the Iranian regime?
Jan 13, 2026
Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow specializing in Iran, discusses the current turmoil in Iran marked by widespread protests and a brutal regime crackdown. She explains how economic struggles transformed into anti-regime sentiment, breaking the social contract. Geranmayeh highlights the shift to violent repression, US military threats, and regional tensions. With a focus on Reza Pahlavi's role and the uncertain control of the regime, she presents two potential futures: intensified repression or much-needed systemic reform.
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Personal Cost And Resolve
- Masa Paré describes sleepless fear after her family joined protests in Iran.
- She says her mother was killed in a past uprising and she now hopes this movement will topple the dictatorship.
Eroded Social Contract
- Ellie Geranmayeh explains Iran's original social contract promised to reduce inequality and won support from bazaari merchants and the poor.
- That contract has eroded through corruption, mismanagement and sanctions, leaving the regime with fewer economic levers to appease protesters.
From Dialogue To Repression
- Geranmayeh says Iran mixed conciliatory national dialogue talk with sudden repressive measures.
- She links the escalation to a perceived need to display firm control amid external pressure and threats of US action.