Five central banks in the last gasp before Christmas
Dec 15, 2024
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Ray Attrill, NAB’s market economist and strategist, breaks down the critical actions of central banks, predicting rate cuts by the Fed and Riksbank, while others hold steady. He analyzes China's stagnant bank loan growth, urging a balanced fiscal policy for recovery. The discussion also touches on Japan's economic indicators and the cautious monetary approach due to political challenges. Finally, Attrill highlights the widening economic gap between the US and Europe as PMI data looms, with France facing credit downgrades amid economic struggles.
The Fed is expected to cut rates this week, contrasting with the Bank of England and others maintaining their current positions.
China's slowing bank loan growth signals ineffective monetary easing, necessitating potential fiscal policy changes for improvement.
Deep dives
Central Banks' Rate Decisions Ahead of Christmas
Several central banks, including the Fed and the Bank of England, are expected to make significant decisions regarding interest rates this week. As central banks approach the neutral rate, speculation arises on how many will opt to pause or implement changes to their monetary policy. The Fed is anticipated to announce a quarter-point rate cut while maintaining cautious messaging, largely influenced by current economic conditions and political scenarios involving the new administration. Market reactions indicate rising Treasury yields, attributed to expectations surrounding these decisions and the potential for a hawkish outlook with respect to future rate adjustments.
China's Sluggish Loan Growth and Economic Implications
Recent data indicates that China's new bank loan growth has significantly slowed, falling short of expectations, which reflects a lack of enthusiasm from both households and businesses for borrowing. Despite government efforts to stimulate lending, the numbers show only 580 billion RMB in new loans compared to predictions of nearly a trillion. This situation suggests that monetary easing measures may not be effectively translating into increased lending activity. Analysts observe that future improvements might require fiscal policy changes rather than solely relying on monetary policy adjustments.
Concerns Over European Economic Performance
Recent announcements from various European financial institutions signal growing concerns regarding economic performance, particularly in France and Germany. The Bundesbank has downgraded its growth forecast to just 0.1%, emphasizing risks associated with potential trade wars that could push Germany into recession. Moody's has similarly downgraded France's credit rating, citing low expectations of fiscal improvement under the new prime minister. These developments highlight a widening economic gulf, suggesting that many European nations may struggle with contraction in key sectors moving forward.
The Fed and four other central banks meet this week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed and the Riksbank will cut rates, whilst the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Norges Bank will all keep rates on hold. Today PMIs are released, which are likely to show a widening gap between US exceptionalism and European gloom. France has a new Prime Minister and Moody’s joining the agencies downgrading their credit rating, assuming the government will be able to do very little to reduce debt in the short term.