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NAB Morning Call

Five central banks in the last gasp before Christmas

Dec 15, 2024
Ray Attrill, NAB’s market economist and strategist, breaks down the critical actions of central banks, predicting rate cuts by the Fed and Riksbank, while others hold steady. He analyzes China's stagnant bank loan growth, urging a balanced fiscal policy for recovery. The discussion also touches on Japan's economic indicators and the cautious monetary approach due to political challenges. Finally, Attrill highlights the widening economic gap between the US and Europe as PMI data looms, with France facing credit downgrades amid economic struggles.
16:47

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Quick takeaways

  • The Fed is expected to cut rates this week, contrasting with the Bank of England and others maintaining their current positions.
  • China's slowing bank loan growth signals ineffective monetary easing, necessitating potential fiscal policy changes for improvement.

Deep dives

Central Banks' Rate Decisions Ahead of Christmas

Several central banks, including the Fed and the Bank of England, are expected to make significant decisions regarding interest rates this week. As central banks approach the neutral rate, speculation arises on how many will opt to pause or implement changes to their monetary policy. The Fed is anticipated to announce a quarter-point rate cut while maintaining cautious messaging, largely influenced by current economic conditions and political scenarios involving the new administration. Market reactions indicate rising Treasury yields, attributed to expectations surrounding these decisions and the potential for a hawkish outlook with respect to future rate adjustments.

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