Coffee House Shots: can Keir defrost the 'entente glaciale'?

The UK is attempting to negotiate a migration deal with France, where the French will take back some migrants arriving illegally by small boats while the UK accepts those with family connections. However, this deal is unlikely to significantly reduce migration numbers immediately.

Tim Shipman emphasizes the difficulties behind these negotiations, noting that the French are hardline and prioritize their national interests. He points out, "The French are very good at knowing what their national interest is and playing hard ball."

The deal's success depends on whether it deters people from making the journey, similar to the controversial Rwanda plan's intended effect, but in the short term, increased crossings could actually occur as smugglers rush to capitalize before new enforcement begins.

Ultimately, the relationship between the UK and France is complex—historically fraught yet mutually respected—so while cooperation is essential, Starmer’s expectations of easy concessions have been challenged by French pragmatism.

• The proposed UK-France migration deal would have France take back illegal migrants arriving on small boats.
• Initially, it may not reduce migration but aims to demonstrate control and deter future crossings.

• Both Macron and Starmer face political struggles and declining public support.
• Their similar center-left positions motivate attempts at cooperation despite domestic challenges.