Is Trump right about violent crime in Venezuela and the US?
Oct 26, 2024
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Join data scientist Bastian Harre from Our World in Data as he unpacks Donald Trump's bold comparisons of violent crime between the US and Venezuela. They delve into the stark differences in homicide rates, revealing Venezuela's rate is three times higher than the US. The discussion highlights the complexities of crime data interpretation and the reliability of FBI statistics over time. With insights on trends and missing data, Harre provides a nuanced perspective that challenges political narratives and enhances our understanding of crime across borders.
Venezuela has significantly higher homicide rates than the U.S., indicating the latter is currently safer than often perceived.
Despite concerns about crime data reliability, FBI statistics show ongoing declines in U.S. homicide rates, challenging claims of rising danger.
Deep dives
Comparative Homicide Rates
The homicide rates in the United States and Venezuela present a stark contrast, with Venezuela exhibiting significantly higher numbers. Estimates place Venezuela’s homicide rate between 19.3 and 63 per 100,000 people, while the United States has a rate of approximately 5.7 to 7.8 per 100,000 people, based on various sources. Despite claims that crime is rising in the U.S., data indicates that it remains much safer in terms of homicides when compared to Venezuela. Even when considering the lowest estimates for Venezuela, the gap in homicide rates suggests that a major shift would be necessary for the United States to become more dangerous.
Reliability of Crime Data
The accuracy of U.S. crime statistics, particularly those from the FBI, is often called into question, yet recent evaluations reveal they remain reliable. The FBI's crime data is compiled from approximately 18,000 police departments across the country, covering 94% of the population and including major cities known for high crime rates. While some smaller jurisdictions may omit reports, this does not significantly impact the broader crime trends, which show a decline in various types of crime, including robbery and burglary, since 2020. Overall, the data reflects a decrease in homicide rates in the U.S. in recent years, countering claims of increased danger.
On the campaign trail for the US presidency, former president Donald Trump has been saying that the US is becoming a more dangerous than Venezuela.
He also claims that the crime data for the US that the FBI collects is missing the most violent cities.
Is he right? Tim Harford investigates, with the help of Bastian Herre from Our World in Data and Jay Albanese from Virginia Commonwealth University.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner
Editor: Richard Vadon
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