Professor Gilbert Doctorow, a distinguished expert on Russia, Syria, and Georgia, delves into the intricate dynamics of international relations. He discusses Russia's military involvement in Syria, impacted by its conflict with Ukraine, and the strategic maneuvering of leaders like Erdogan. The episode also highlights rising tensions for Russian travelers to the U.S. and Russia's recalibrated strategies in light of NATO's actions. Additionally, Doctorow analyzes Georgian politics, touching on the complexities of domestic influences and Western interactions.
Russia's military focus has shifted towards Ukraine, perceived as more critical than its diminishing efforts in Syria, indicating a strategic retreat influenced by internal challenges in Assad's regime.
The pragmatic yet transactional relationship between Russia and Turkey, particularly concerning energy transit and military sales, underscores regional power dynamics influenced by fluctuating loyalties and NATO tensions.
Deep dives
Russia's Strategic Priorities
Russia's current military focus largely revolves around the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which is seen as a higher priority than its involvement in Syria. Although there has been speculation about Russia abandoning its efforts in Syria, this is often portrayed in Western media as propaganda designed to divert attention from the challenges Russia faces in Ukraine. Russian intelligence has likely informed their leadership that the Syrian regime under Assad is collapsing from within, leading to a strategic retreat rather than a complete withdrawal. This perspective allows Russia to continue pursuing its military goals in Ukraine without being encumbered by the deteriorating situation in Syria.
Erdogan's Transactional Relationship with Russia
President Erdogan's leadership is viewed with skepticism by Russia due to his fluctuating loyalty and actions that are often seen as self-serving. Although the Kremlin disapproves of Erdogan's recent maneuverings—such as his military engagements close to Russian interests—they maintain a pragmatic relationship. This relationship is chiefly transactional, given that Turkey serves as a key transit point for Russian energy to Europe. Furthermore, the sale of Russian S-400 missile systems to Turkey underscores Erdogan's intent to assert his nation's military autonomy, despite the pressures from the U.S. regarding his defense choices.
Potential Military Escalation Concerns
Recent statements from Russian officials suggest a recalibration of their military strategy, particularly in response to perceived threats from NATO and the U.S. An increase in military activities, such as the potential use of advanced missiles like the Oreshnik, indicates that Russia may be prepared to target NATO assets directly. This comes alongside warnings issued to Russian citizens about potential risks when traveling to NATO allied countries, hinting at significant tensions escalating between Russia and the West. The incident involving a recent strike on a military base has raised alarms within Russia about the need for a strong retaliatory stance against ongoing Western support for Ukraine.