Riskgaming

The hyper-competition of U.S.-China trade relations

Apr 4, 2025

Neil Thomas, a Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute focusing on China's elite politics, and Kate Logan, the director of the China Climate Hub, delve into the impacts of the U.S.-China trade war. They discuss lessons from China's manufacturing rise and highlight the necessity for U.S. adaptation in a competitive environment. The duo emphasizes the importance of processing information overload and strategic partnerships in navigating the complexities of trade. Additionally, they explore the intersection of climate change and economic rivalry, urging a collaborative approach to global challenges.

32:37

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Episode guests

Kate Logan

Neil Thomas

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Understanding China's past manufacturing strategies can guide U.S. policymakers in developing effective industrial policies amid changing trade relations.

The importance of adaptive strategies and collaboration in competitive markets is crucial for navigating the complexities of U.S.-China trade dynamics.

Deep dives

The Impact of U.S.-China Trade Relations on Manufacturing

The discussion highlights the complexities involved in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly in the context of manufacturing onshoring. The recent imposition of tariffs has significantly disrupted market dynamics and altered perceptions of global trade norms. It is noted that the U.S. needs to learn from China's development strategies over the past few decades to better navigate its own industrial policies. Understanding the historical context and current challenges will help the U.S. formulate a more effective approach to its manufacturing strategy in the face of rapid global changes.

Intro

2min

Navigating Complexity in Trade Simulation

6min

Navigating U.S.-China Trade Dynamics

19min

Navigating U.S.-China Trade Relations: Strategies for Innovation and Competition

2min

Navigating Climate Change in U.S.-China Relations

4min

With the launch of President Trump’s trade war this week, few countries are more at risk than China. Faced with a sudden and massive expansion of tariffs as well as changes to the de minimis parcel rule, the export-led development model that has led China to great wealth is now under serious threat. What should we learn from the past of U.S.-China relations in order to understand their future?

Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner are Neil Thomas and Kate Logan of the Asia Society Policy Institute. Neil is a fellow and researches the elite politics and political economy of China, while Kate is director of the China Climate Hub and Climate Diplomacy. They have written extensively on China’s industrial strategy and foreign relations, and even more notably, they both participated in the launch of our Chinese electric vehicle Riskgaming scenario Powering Up in Washington DC back in December.

We talk about their experiences playing the game, and why processing information overload is a crucial skill, particularly in competitive markets like cleantech. Then we talk about the lessons of China’s manufacturing rise, why America ignored its industrial strategy for so long, and how U.S. policymakers and business leaders can approach the future of the most critical trade relationship in the world.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko