Join Laurence Pevsner, a geopolitical strategy expert, as he unveils the alarming decline of the global commons. He dives into how China’s aggressive actions at sea and in cyberspace threaten international stability. Pevsner discusses the militarization of outer space and the challenges faced by global institutions like the IMF and UN amid rising powers. The conversation also touches on the privatization of vital resources and the difficulty of accessing reliable information in today's fragmented digital landscape. It's a crucial exploration of our world's shifting dynamics.
The ongoing militarization of areas like outer space and international waters signals a dangerous shift in global geopolitics and international relations.
The declining accessibility of critical information due to privatization and paywalls threatens the survival of the information commons and informed citizenship.
Deep dives
The Decline of Global Commons
The discussion centers around the decline of global commons, emphasizing that areas previously considered safe, such as airspace, oceans, and cyberspace, are increasingly under threat. Recent incidents, like Russia's military actions and the disruption caused by Chinese ships, highlight a troubling trend of contention in these shared spaces. The notion that previously secure environments are becoming more militarized underscores a fundamental shift in international relations. There is a growing concern that the framework established post-World War II, which aimed to foster cooperation, is deteriorating.
Struggles of International Institutions
The challenges faced by long-established international institutions, like the UN and the World Bank, are dissected, revealing their struggles with relevance and efficacy in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. The podcast discusses how emerging powers, such as China and India, seek to reform institutions that were primarily designed when the U.S. held dominant economic power. Current dynamics suggest that attempts at reform are complicated, often stalling due to competing interests among member states. This transformation reflects a move towards a multipolar world, where clashing national interests complicate international governance.
Impact of Technology on Information Access
The podcast addresses the technological landscape, focusing on how the rise of platforms and gatekeeping behaviors affects public access to vital information. Instances of paywalls limiting access to news during emergencies, coupled with the polarized environment of social media, contribute to a fragmented information commons. This trend makes it increasingly challenging for individuals to obtain accurate and timely information, particularly during crises like natural disasters. As individuals turn to alternative channels for information, the reliance on traditional media declines, widening the gap in information accessibility.
Privatization and Securitization of the Commons
The conversation highlights two significant consequences of the shrinking commons: the privatization and securitization of resources. As the global commons diminishes, entities like OpenAI shift from open access models to privatized systems, turning once-public knowledge into proprietary information. Simultaneously, there is an increased need for security measures as nations bolster defenses against emerging threats in cyberspace and physical territories. This duality presents opportunities for the private sector to develop security solutions, though it raises concerns about the implications for broader access to shared resources.
It’s been a bad few months (and years and decades) for the global commons. Chinese trawlers have repeatedly knocked out internet cables in international waters. Outer space is being militarized by Russia and others, threatening the demilitarized posture adopted by the Outer Space Treaty. Chinese hackers are using cyber weapons to infiltrate the U.S. Treasury through the Salt Typhoon hacks, while Antarctica is being explored by multiple militaries in contravention of the peace proposed in the the Antarctic Treaty. Then there’s the decline of the information commons, where paywalls increasingly move critical news and data out of reach of citizens.
In short, the global commons is losing primacy. Friend of the podcast Scott Bade highlighted this theme for geopolitical strategy firm Eurasia Group’s annual Top Risks report, and we decided to follow up with our own Riskgaming conversation. So Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner teamed up to talk through the global commons and what’s endangering it.
We discuss the privatization and securitization of the commons, how post-World War II institutions are buckling under new pressures from rising powers, why technology is both helping and hurting, and finally, what America can do as a nation to stay open under threat.