Exploring the causes of 1970s inflation, the podcast discusses the impact of banking regulation Reg Q on the economy. It highlights how rate hikes hindered the supply side rather than cooling the demand side. The episode also explores the importance of banks in credit provision and their role in the housing market. Overall, it offers insights into the potential risks of inflation and its relevance to the current economic situation.
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Quick takeaways
Regulation Q (Reg Q), a banking regulation from the 1930s, impaired the transmission of monetary policy by placing a ceiling on deposit interest rates, resulting in disintermediation, credit crunches, decreased savings, and a demand-side impact on inflation in the 1970s.
The analysis challenges the traditional monetary narrative by highlighting the importance of supply factors, including credit constraints caused by regulations like Reg Q, in driving inflation, and emphasizes the need to consider both supply and demand factors in determining the impact of monetary policy on the economy.
Deep dives
Reg Q and its Impact on Inflation and Credit
The podcast episode discusses the role of Regulation Q (Reg Q) in the inflation and credit dynamics of the 1970s. Reg Q, a banking regulation from the 1930s, placed a ceiling on deposit interest rates, impacting the ability of banks to compete for deposits. This led to disintermediation, with deposits flowing out of banks and causing credit crunches. The restriction on interest rates hindered the transmission of monetary policy, making deposits less attractive and suppressing savings. The resulting effects included a demand-side impact, with reduced savings and higher spending, as well as a supply-side impact, with credit constraints leading to decreased investment and output. The analysis suggests that both supply and demand factors played a role in the inflationary episodes of the 1970s, and that financial friction had an impact on supply. The removal of Reg Q in the early 1980s with two stages of deregulation facilitated the unwinding of these dynamics and the reduction of inflation.
Lessons for Today and the Importance of Banks
The podcast explores the relevance of the 1970s experience for the present day. It highlights the importance of understanding both supply and demand factors in driving inflation and business cycles. The analysis suggests that financial friction can impact supply as well as demand, and that credit crunches can have a significant influence. Banks continue to play a crucial role in providing credit, particularly for small and medium-sized firms that rely on them due to limited alternatives such as bond issuance. The episode also touches on the challenges of transmission of monetary policy in the current context, with banks having significant market power and limited pass-through of higher benchmark rates to deposit rates. The importance of monitoring supply chain issues and unfilled orders as potential indicators of future inflationary pressures is emphasized.
Reevaluating the Monetary Narrative and Reg Q's Legacy
The podcast challenges the traditional monetary narrative that attributes inflation solely to excessive demand and the Fed's response. It suggests that supply factors, including credit constraints due to regulations like Reg Q, were equally important drivers of inflation. The analysis questions the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling demand when financial friction impedes its transmission to supply. The removal of Reg Q played a significant role in reducing inflation in the 1980s. The episode also highlights the persistence of banking's importance in credit provision today, despite the growth of alternative sources of finance. It raises questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy in the present and the need to consider both supply and demand factors in determining its impact on the economy.
There remains a lot of anxiety over whether inflation in the US will gather steam all over again. Part of this worry stems from the fact that there were multiple bouts of inflation in the 1970s, which was the last time the US had a serious inflation problem. So to understand whether our current environment bears similar risks to that of the 70s, it's important to understand what actually drove inflation during that period. On this episode, we speak with Itamar Drechsler, a finance professor at Penn's Wharton school. He argues that the banking regulation known as Reg Q impaired the transmission of monetary policy, and resulted in a perverse dynamic via which rate hikes served to impair the supply side of the economy, rather than cool the demand side.