Shift Key with Robinson Meyer and Jesse Jenkins Shift Key Classic: Have China’s Carbon Emissions Peaked?
Nov 12, 2025
Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, dives deep into China’s emissions landscape. He discusses whether the nation’s carbon emissions have peaked and contrasts its booming renewables growth with persistent coal use. Lauri reveals how rising industrial demand and a complex energy sector are critical drivers of emissions trends. They explore the electrification of transport and its benefits for urban air quality, along with the challenges in construction and steel sectors. Can China navigate its ambitious energy transition?
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Clean Energy Growth Outpaced Expectations
- China rapidly scaled solar and wind after 2020, adding hundreds of gigawatts that can cover much electricity demand growth.
- Emissions growth has paused but not yet entered the structural decline needed for carbon neutrality.
The Fundamental Supply–Demand Emissions Race
- Emissions depend on the race between clean supply additions and energy demand growth.
- If demand grows faster than renewables, emissions rise; if renewables outpace demand, emissions fall.
Coal Builds From Dispatch And Redundancy Issues
- China built coal capacity partly as an insurance against perceived capacity shortages and rigid cross-province dispatch rules.
- That created redundancy and prompted provinces to keep authorizing more coal plants.