TPP613: Reviewing our 2024 predictions (how did we do?)
Dec 12, 2024
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Rob and Rob review their bold predictions for the 2024 property market, uncovering whether they struck gold or missed the mark. They discuss the impact of new rental laws, challenges faced by potential renters, and the surprising resilience of average property prices. The conversation also dives into their miscalculations on rent increases and interest rates, alongside insights into FTSE 100 and Bitcoin futures. They explore how AI tools like Perplexity are shaping their future forecasts in this ever-evolving market.
22:50
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Quick takeaways
The hosts successfully predicted a 4.2% increase in average property prices, outperforming their initial forecast range amidst market skepticism.
Despite a poor performance in forecasting top-performing property areas, they recognized unexpected growth locations like Belfast, showcasing development disparities.
Deep dives
Reviewing Property Price Predictions
The podcast reflects on predictions made at the beginning of the year regarding UK property prices. Initially, an increase in average property prices by around 0.1% to 2.5% was forecasted, with a core belief that prices would rise by 4% or more. The analysis reveals an actual increase of 4.2%, indicating that the predictions were largely accurate despite initial skepticism about their bullish nature. The hosts acknowledge that while they had some correct insights, their predictions were made against a backdrop of broader market negativity, which emphasized their contrasting stance.
Top Performing Areas
In discussing predictions for the top-performing property areas, the podcast highlights a mixed success rate. The predictions included Nottingham, Birmingham, and Leeds as potential leaders, while ultimately Manchester emerged on top, followed by Glasgow and Liverpool. The analysis indicates a surprising divergence from previous years, where the hosts typically showcased stronger predictive accuracy. The overall performance of their area predictions was deemed poor, with the hosts not successfully targeting the fastest-growing locations outside of Belfast, which unexpectedly led the market.
Rents and Interest Rates Surprises
Predictions for rental growth were set conservatively between 2% to 4%, but the reality showed an astonishing increase of 8.7%. The hosts reflect on their miscalculation, attributing their failures to an inaccurate reading of market fundamentals and trends in supply and demand. When discussing interest rates, one host correctly predicted a decline, suggesting they would finish lower than at the start of the year. The outcomes for rents and interest rates showcased significant growth and reductions, respectively, signaling a strong year for property investment, even if the hosts felt they misaligned with the established predictions.
At the start of the year, Rob & Rob made bold predictions about the 2024 property market and much more. Now it’s judgement day - did their forecasts hit the mark, or were they way off? Let’s find out!
(1:00) News story of the week.
(3:25) Let’s kick-off with The Robs’ house price predictions…
(6:25) Did they pick the winning areas, or were they off the mark?
(11:11) What about their rental predictions?
(13:35) Did they nail it or get it wrong with interest rates?
(14:45) How did they do with their FTSE 100 predictions?
(15:40) Boom or bust with Bitcoin?
(17:55) Finally let’s look back at Rob & Rob’s political predictions