The Problem With Not Having Kids: Paul Morland

Dec 23, 2025

In this conversation, Paul Morland, a British demographer and author, delves into the alarming implications of declining birth rates on our aging societies. He dispels myths about overpopulation, highlighting how cultural shifts and modern distractions deter family growth. Morland emphasizes the economic risks of a shrinking population and proposes policy changes to incentivize family life. He also discusses the role of technology and changing social norms in shaping our reproductive choices.

01:23:16

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insights

INSIGHT

Aging Pyramid Drives Economic Strain

Falling fertility creates an upside-down population pyramid with far more elderly than working-age people.
That drives rising care costs, shrinking labour supply, slow growth and rising per-capita government debt.

insights

INSIGHT

Technology Expanded Earth's Capacity

Technological progress has multiplied humanity's carrying capacity since 1800, making 8 billion sustainable today.
Morland argues stabilising near 8–10 billion is environmentally and economically manageable with better tech.

insights

INSIGHT

Choice Versus Biological Fertility

Distinguish biological fertility (ability) from demographic fertility (how many people have children).
Current falls are mainly demographic choices, not clear large-scale biological decline.

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Why population decline matters

01:31 • 2min

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Humanity, resources and carrying capacity

04:00 • 4min

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Stabilizing global population around 8–10 billion

08:29 • 3min

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Demography basics and common misunderstandings

11:23 • 4min

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Why fertility fell since the 1970s

15:00 • 6min

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Biological versus demographic fertility

20:54 • 3min

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Housing's role in fertility — necessary but insufficient

23:30 • 3min

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Culture, technology and distractions

26:50 • 2min

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Policy incentives and tax design

29:18 • 9min

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Women in work, men's role, and workplace change

38:20 • 6min

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Work-from-home and family-friendly schedules

43:50 • 6min

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Dating apps, meeting people and partnership breakdown

49:21 • 3min

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Sex education reframed to include fertility

52:46 • 5min

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Changing cultural status around parenthood

57:19 • 5min

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Korea and East Asia's extreme fertility decline

01:01:51 • 5min

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Identity, national continuity and reproduction

01:06:58 • 12min

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Paths: immigration, Japanese decline or pronatal policy

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The Ultimate Resource

Julian Lincoln Simon

In this book, Julian Simon argues against the notion that humanity is running out of natural resources. He contends that as resources become scarcer, their prices rise, creating incentives for people to discover more resources, ration and recycle them, and develop substitutes. Simon believes that human creativity and innovation are the ultimate resources, enabling economic growth and improving living standards despite population growth. The book also discusses historical precedents of unfounded environmental fears and includes a famous wager with Paul Ehrlich that demonstrated the decline in real prices of commodity metals over time.

Demographer and author Paul Morland joins James Smith to reveal the uncomfortable truth about the problem with population collapse - why falling birth rates are creating aging societies, economic decline and a quiet crisis at the heart of the modern world. Morland explains how a lack of children is reshaping nations, destroying communities and threatening the future of humanity itself.

They discuss the myths around “overpopulation,” the cultural shifts stopping people from having families and the real reasons behind the demographic time bomb no one wants to talk about. From housing and technology to feminism and social media, this episode explores how comfort, distraction and misplaced priorities have turned reproduction into a global taboo.

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He explains:

◼️ Why population collapse will bankrupt countries

◼️ How culture and comfort are killing fertility

◼️ Why the “too many people” myth is a dangerous lie

◼️ How governments can (and must) incentivise family life

◼️ What happens when a society stops having children

timestamps

00:00 Why Population Decline Matters

02:00 Korea’s Aging Population Spiral

05:14 Can Earth Support More People?

08:34 Humans As The Ultimate Resource

11:22 Demography Everyone Misunderstands

14:07 The Global Fertility Collapse

18:55 Choice Vs Biological Fertility

22:10 Why People Stop Having Kids

25:33 Housing, Work, And Modern Life

27:07 Incentives Can’t Fix Culture Alone

31:16 Welfare, Taxes, And Family Penalties

34:20 Why Fertility Isn’t Political

36:49 Women, Work, And Family Timing

41:12 How Workplaces Must Change

49:21 Dating Apps And Relationship Breakdown

57:31 Teaching Fertility Earlier

62:44 East Asia’s Status Trap

68:26 Immigration Or National Decline

80:46 What Population Collapse Looks Like

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