EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for 2025
Nov 27, 2024
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Jahangir Aziz, Head of Emerging Market Economics Research at J.P. Morgan, joins Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist, and Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy, for a deep dive into Emerging Markets' outlook for 2025. They discuss how upcoming U.S. policies may disrupt inflation and investment strategies in these regions. The impact of fiscal vulnerabilities and the necessity of cautious monetary policy are examined, along with navigation of volatility in fixed income markets, highlighting both risks and opportunities ahead.
Emerging markets showcased resilience in 2024, driven by disinflation and growth, setting a promising stage for 2025.
The incoming U.S. administration's potential tariff increases and immigration policies could pose significant risks to emerging market economies and growth.
Deep dives
Positive Indicators for Emerging Markets
Emerging markets showed resilience in 2024, with disinflation trends and stronger-than-expected growth driving positive macroeconomic conditions. This resilience sets the stage for a more promising outlook in 2025, suggesting that emerging market assets could perform well amidst a backdrop of reduced inflation and stable growth. However, potential risks from upcoming U.S. elections and policy shifts cannot be ignored, especially those associated with the incoming administration's trade and immigration policies. The outlook emphasizes that while there are encouraging indicators, the uncertainty surrounding these political developments poses significant challenges ahead.
Impact of U.S. Policies on Trade and Growth
The anticipated policies of the newly elected administration are expected to create a negative supply shock in emerging markets, primarily through increased tariffs and stricter immigration rules. Tariff rates on China could rise significantly, shifting the supply curve and leading to lower growth coupled with higher inflation. The analysis suggests that trade uncertainties already have a historical precedent, reminding us of the negative impacts experienced globally during previous trade tensions. Furthermore, the potential economic isolationism of the U.S. could starkly contrast with the benefits of previous years, where U.S. growth positively influenced emerging markets.
Inflation and Fiscal Challenges in Emerging Markets
Emerging market inflation is projected to moderate, despite the challenges posed by evolving global trade dynamics and fluctuating U.S. policies. While some regions may experience a decrease in inflation, others with tight labor markets might face persistent inflationary pressures. Fiscally, many emerging markets are grappling with widening deficits, creating vulnerabilities that are only exacerbated by a challenging external environment. Without substantial offsets like those available to the U.S., these emerging economies will face tougher growth dynamics, influencing both macroeconomic stability and investment strategies.
J.P. Morgan economists and strategists discuss the outlook for Emerging Markets in 2025, focusing also on the various channels in which the new US administration can impact EM economies and fixed income markets.
Speakers
Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro Research
Jonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Jahangir Aziz - Head of Emerging Market Economics Research
Nora Szentivanyi - Global Economist
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