At Any Rate
EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for 2025
Nov 27, 2024
Jahangir Aziz, Head of Emerging Market Economics Research at J.P. Morgan, joins Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist, and Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy, for a deep dive into Emerging Markets' outlook for 2025. They discuss how upcoming U.S. policies may disrupt inflation and investment strategies in these regions. The impact of fiscal vulnerabilities and the necessity of cautious monetary policy are examined, along with navigation of volatility in fixed income markets, highlighting both risks and opportunities ahead.
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Quick takeaways
- Emerging markets showcased resilience in 2024, driven by disinflation and growth, setting a promising stage for 2025.
- The incoming U.S. administration's potential tariff increases and immigration policies could pose significant risks to emerging market economies and growth.
Deep dives
Positive Indicators for Emerging Markets
Emerging markets showed resilience in 2024, with disinflation trends and stronger-than-expected growth driving positive macroeconomic conditions. This resilience sets the stage for a more promising outlook in 2025, suggesting that emerging market assets could perform well amidst a backdrop of reduced inflation and stable growth. However, potential risks from upcoming U.S. elections and policy shifts cannot be ignored, especially those associated with the incoming administration's trade and immigration policies. The outlook emphasizes that while there are encouraging indicators, the uncertainty surrounding these political developments poses significant challenges ahead.
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