School of War Ep 223: Mick Ryan on Ukraine Negotiations and Fighting
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Aug 19, 2025 Major General Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army officer and Senior Fellow at the Lowy Institute, breaks down the intricate dynamics of the Ukraine conflict. He discusses the pressure on the eastern front, the strategic implications of new long-range missiles, and the significance of the 'fortress belt' in defense strategies. Ryan emphasizes the challenges of achieving a realistic peace settlement and the shifting U.S.-Russia diplomatic landscape. His insights provide a comprehensive look at the complexities of modern warfare and international relations.
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War Is Multi-Front And Strategic
- The main Russian effort is concentrated on the Eastern Front, especially the Pokrovsk axis, while the northeast has largely stabilized.
- Russia is also striking cities and infrastructure while Ukraine targets refineries and factories, widening the war's effects.
New Ukrainian Long-Range Strike Capability
- Ukraine announced a new long-range missile (Flamingo) with ~3,000 km range and a 1,000 kg warhead, changing strike calculus.
- Mick Ryan calls it impactful though not a silver bullet for the conflict.
High Cost Of Russian Ground Advances
- At current Russian rates the MoD estimates taking the rest of Donbas could take years and millions of casualties.
- That explains why Putin may seek diplomatic concessions rather than risk prolonged attrition.