Lawfare Archive: Shane Harris on the Nord Stream 2 Bombing
Jan 5, 2025
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Shane Harris, a Washington Post author and a frequent contributor to Lawfare, dives deep into the controversial bombing of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. He discusses the initial blame placed on Russia due to its war in Ukraine and the ongoing lack of concrete evidence. The conversation explores various conspiracy theories about the real culprits, the geopolitical ramifications, and environmental concerns like methane release. Harris also scrutinizes the complexities involved in investigating such covert operations and potential motivations for other involved parties.
Despite widespread speculation implicating Russia, the investigation into the Nord Stream 2 bombing has yet to produce definitive evidence linking any nation to the attack.
The incident underscores the vulnerability of critical undersea infrastructure, highlighting the need for enhanced security strategies amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Deep dives
Overview of the Nord Stream Sabotage
The sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines in September 2022 raised significant questions regarding the responsible party, initially leading many to suspect the Russian Federation due to its involvement in Ukraine. The explosions damaged both Nord Stream 1 and 2, evident through dramatic footage of gas escaping into the Baltic Sea. Despite widespread speculation pointing to Russia as the perpetrator, concrete evidence tying the Kremlin to the attack has not emerged, complicating the attribution process. Various expert analyses have also highlighted the geopolitical ramifications, emphasizing how the pipelines were critical for European energy security, making the act of sabotage seem plausible as a move to pressure Europe amid the ongoing conflict.
Complicated Motives and Actors
Amidst the investigation, multiple countries, including Ukraine, emerged as potential suspects, each having their own motives. While some argue Russia would have little to gain from sabotaging its own infrastructure, others speculate that Ukraine may benefit by eliminating a means for Russian leverage over Europe. The podcast details various perspectives from intelligence and diplomatic sources, which highlight that attributing responsibility is not straightforward, as no nation definitively possesses conclusive evidence pointing towards any party. This complex landscape reflects the strategic importance of energy resources intertwined with international relations and military tactics.
The Lack of Direct Evidence
Despite the strong suspicions surrounding the Nord Stream sabotage, the investigation has not produced substantial forensic evidence linking any specific country to the act. Reports indicate that standard forms of intelligence, such as signals intelligence and explosive residue analysis, have not conclusively identified a perpetrator. Numerous high-level sources have suggested that the absence of definitive communication or evidence from Russian or Ukrainian operatives leaves the investigation at an impasse. This situation underscores the challenges in resolving international conflicts, particularly when actions of sabotage are executed covertly, making it difficult to hold parties accountable.
Vulnerability of Undersea Infrastructure
The destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines has highlighted the susceptibility of undersea infrastructure to potential sabotage, raising alarms among security experts regarding energy security. Investigators revealed that sabotage operations could be conducted with relative ease, given the right tools and access, leaving critical infrastructure exposed. This incident emphasizes a broader concern for global maritime security, demonstrating that even in heavily monitored areas, covert operations can successfully evade detection. The consensus among analysts suggests that as geopolitical tensions rise, nations must reconsider their strategies to protect vital energy conduits from similar threats.
From January 5, 2023: It was a few months ago that something went boom under the sea and the Nord Stream 2 pipelines were severely damaged. Everyone assumed the perpetrator was the Russian Federation because of the Russian Federation’s war in Ukraine, and because the pipeline carried natural gas from Russia to Europe. But, months have gone by and evidence that Russia was behind the Nord Stream attacks has not surfaced.
This was the subject of a lengthy article in the Washington Post, the lead author of which was Shane Harris. Lawfare editor-in-chief Benjamin Wittes sat down with Shane to discuss the article, what we know about the Nord Stream attacks, and what we know about who could be behind them.
