UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Twelve billion dollars'
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Dec 9, 2025 Germany surprises with a larger-than-expected trade surplus, driven by diminishing import demand. Meanwhile, global trade outside the US continues to thrive, aiding German exports. President Trump's proposed $12 billion farm support package raises eyebrows amidst concerns over tariff revenue, which has fallen short of forecasts. Grocery prices are on the rise, highlighting inflation's impact on everyday items. Additionally, weak UK retail sales signal caution for Black Friday. All this, while US job openings data draws attention for its significance in employment trends.
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Germany's Trade Surplus Driven By Weak Imports
- Germany's October trade surplus beat expectations because imports fell more than exports did.
- Global trade outside the US remains robust and supports German industry into Q4.
Global Trade Outside US Is Holding Up
- Most of the world outside the US is trading well with one another, which helps export-led economies.
- That external demand underpins German industrial production and the fourth-quarter outlook.
Treat Tariff-Funded Bailouts With Caution
- Expect proposed farm bailout spending to require congressional approval before implementation.
- Note that tariff revenues often fall short of modeled predictions because importers reroute supply chains to avoid tariffs.