Pratik Gupta, Head of CLO and RMBS research at Bank of America, shares insights on the thriving CLO market. He highlights the record-breaking performance of CLO BBs and AAA markets, with returns soaring since 2022. Gupta discusses the rising appeal of AAA CLOs among investors, strategic shifts by U.S. banks, and the influence of Japanese buyers. He also delves into the complexities of Loan Market Exchange structures and how CLO managers can navigate the evolving landscape of 2025. Expect more growth and strategic depth ahead!
The CLO market is expected to see record-breaking issuance in 2025, driven by increased M&A and LBO activities fueled by a renewed regulatory environment.
Despite a positive outlook for CLO investments, risks such as market volatility and downgrades in loan quality necessitate strong risk management strategies for investors.
Deep dives
CLO Market Performance and Predictions for 2025
The CLO market experienced one of its most active years, with issuance volumes approaching $190 billion and significant records in private credit CLO issuances. Predictions indicate a continuation of this trend into 2025, with expectations of $215 billion in total issuance, consisting of $50 billion in private credit CLOs and $160 billion in BSL issuances. The renewed regulatory environment is expected to promote increased M&A and LBO activities, which will provide necessary collateral for CLOs. This optimistic outlook, however, hinges on the ability of the leverage loan finance teams to deliver the required collateral.
CLO Investment Performance Outstrips Expectations
CLO investments have significantly outperformed general market expectations with CLO BBs achieving a 40% return since 2022, outperforming the S&P 500 by 15 percentage points. With CLO AAA tranches returning about 17% over the same period, these fixed income products have become some of the best-performing asset classes in the U.S. They continue to offer attractive yields, with 10% yields in CLO BBs and approximately 6% in CLO AAAs, indicating strong investor interest in this asset class moving forward. This improving investor appetite is expected to push spread compression in the CLO market as competition increases.
CLO Equity and the Shift in Investor Preferences
CLO equity has garnered mixed opinions, with many experts believing that the risk-adjusted returns are more favorable for BBs compared to equity in the current market environment. This is attributed to elevated pricing in loans, leading to heightened risks for equity investors, especially as a large portion of the loan market trades above par. The emergence of structural features, such as splitting triple B tranches, signifies a shift in focus among investors trying to enhance yield while managing risk. Overall, while equity remains a viable option for top-tier managers, BB tranches offer better stability and return potential in the broader market.
Emerging Risks and Challenges in the CLO Landscape
Despite the overall positive sentiment towards the CLO market, several risk factors loom over 2025, demanding scrutiny from investors. Market volatility associated with CLO ETFs may lead to unpredictable outflows, impacting spread dynamics, particularly in low-rated tranches. Additionally, persistent downgrades in loan quality amidst an oversupply of capital might stress investment portfolios. Active risk management and early formation of cooperative groups among investors will become essential to navigate potential downturns effectively and mitigate credit risks in the evolving market landscape.
A record breaking year comes to an end. What could possibly come next? How about another?
In this week's episode of Cloud 9fin, Tanvi Gupta, global head of CLOs at 9fin, talks with Pratik Gupta, head of CLO and RMBS research at Bank of America, to discuss the outlook for 2025. They talk about ETFs, performance across the CLO capital structure, LMEs, co-op agreements, HY bond buckets and why 2025 might match the record breaking levels of issuance we've seen in 2024.
Have any feedback on the episode? Send us a note at podcast@9fin.com. Thanks for listening.
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