The Jacob Shapiro Podcast The Black Sea Isn’t Quiet Anymore
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Jan 19, 2026 Andrey Sizov, a Black Sea agricultural markets analyst and founder of Sovicorn, dives into the complexities of global grain trade influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He reveals why disruption fears haven’t fully materialized yet but are changing with recent attacks on shipping. The discussion explores Turkey's crucial role in the region, implications for U.S. agriculture, and insights on the sunflower market. Sizov also touches on how geopolitical dynamics affect global food security and the intertwined destinies of agriculture and international relations.
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Host's 2022 Grain Panic Confession
- Jacob admits he expected bigger global grain disruptions early in the war and felt silly as markets steadied.
- Andrey recalled early market panic in 2022 that pushed Chicago wheat to unprecedented limit‑up runs.
Black Sea Is Central To Global Wheat
- The Black Sea is the world's top wheat export hub and drives global wheat price sensitivity.
- Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly one third of global grain exports, making the region crucial to food markets.
Quiet Followed 2022 Panic Because Of Behind‑The‑Scenes Deal
- After initial panic in 2022 markets eased as flows kept moving and a likely non-public deal limited attacks.
- That quiet period looks politically negotiated, which explains why major disruptions did not materialize earlier.