The Black Sea Isn’t Quiet Anymore
The Jacob Shapiro Podcast
Chances of a 2026 Ceasefire
Sizov evaluates how positions have shifted and why a ceasefire in 2026 is plausible though not imminent.
Andrey Sizov, a Black Sea agricultural markets, joins the pod to talk about about why the Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global grain trade far less than expected - and why that may be changing. Jacob and Sizov examine recent attacks on shipping, the fragile balance keeping Black Sea exports moving, and how escalation could ripple through wheat, corn, energy markets, and global food security. Of course, they also tie in Iran, China’s commodity buying, and what geopolitical risk really means for global agriculture.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:24) - Black Sea Geopolitics and Agricultural Markets
(01:09) - Technical Issues and Podcast Logistics
(01:45) - Start of the Interview with Andre Coff
(03:27) - Black Sea's Importance in Global Trade
(04:32) - Market Reactions and Historical Context
(06:09) - Recent Developments and Speculations
(13:52) - Prospects for a Deal and Future Outlook
(17:07) - Impact on U.S. Agriculture and Market Sentiments
(23:00) - Turkey's Role in the Black Sea Region
(24:29) - Turkey's Role in the Black Sea
(26:22) - Turkey's Wheat Imports and Black Sea Stability
(28:22) - Sunflower Market Insights
(30:06) - Iran's Political and Economic Challenges
(33:07) - US and Israeli Involvement in Iran
(38:55) - China's Agricultural Trade with the US
(43:13) - Global Grains Trade and Self-Sufficiency
(50:02) - Conclusion and Future Outlook
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Referenced in the Show:
Andrey Sizov's Reports: https://sizov.report/
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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
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