The Israel-Hamas war — and what it means for the world | Ian Bremmer
Oct 10, 2023
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Political scientist Ian Bremmer provides historical context of the Israel-Hamas war, discusses the human cost and the lack of economic benefits for Palestinians. He warns about potential consequences and parallels with 9/11, emphasizes the need for international support, and discusses the impact of social media and disinformation. He also explores potential escalations, hostages, and the possibility of a unified national emergency government in Israel.
The Israel-Gaza conflict stems from the complex situation in the region, with Gaza being part of the Palestinian occupied territories and the two-state solution losing traction.
The recent attacks on Israel by Hamas have caused shock and panic within the country, with Israel's immediate priorities being to rescue hostages held by Hamas and ensure border security.
Deep dives
Historical Context of the Israel-Gaza Conflict
The Israel-Gaza conflict stems from the complex situation in the region, with Gaza being part of the Palestinian occupied territories. The two-state solution, which aimed to achieve stability by giving Palestinians some ability to govern themselves, has lost traction. Israel has been pursuing diplomatic relations with other countries, such as the UAE and Bahrain, irrespective of resolving the Palestinian problem. Meanwhile, the Palestinian population in Gaza suffers from poverty and lacks resources and statehood. The Palestinians have become an afterthought for Israel, which has focused more on its domestic issues and expanding settlements. This backdrop has contributed to the current conflict.
Immediate Response and Challenges for Israel
The recent attacks on Israel by Hamas have caused shock and panic within the country. Israel's immediate priorities are to rescue the hostages held by Hamas and ensure the security of its borders. The government is focused on getting its citizens back safely and taking strong action against Hamas. It faces challenges in removing the leadership of Hamas, disarming the militias in Gaza, and preventing future attacks. The Israeli population stands united, and there are discussions of forming a government of national emergency to collectively address the ongoing crisis.
Potential Geopolitical Implications
The Israel-Gaza conflict holds broader geopolitical implications. While the Wall Street Journal article suggesting Iranian involvement in the attacks is lightly sourced, Iran has historically supported and provided military aid to Hamas. However, the U.S. has not found direct evidence of Iranian orchestration. The U.S. fleet off the Israeli coast demonstrates support while cautioning against expanding the conflict into Iran. Geopolitically, Lebanon and its relation to Hezbollah become a critical factor to watch, as escalation there could impact the wider region. The media coverage and information on social media platforms also play a significant role in shaping public perceptions but are often filled with disinformation and polarization.
Impact on Palestinians and Path to Peace
One tragic consequence of the conflict is the suffering of the Palestinian people. Hamas's actions risk further delegitimizing Palestinians and cementing the perception that all Palestinians are aligned with extremism. The Palestinian Authority seeks international engagement and renewed peace talks, aiming for a two-state solution and cessation of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. However, immediate priorities to contain the violence and avoid a broader war in the region overshadow long-term peace efforts. Resolving the conflict is challenging when social media platforms contribute to polarization, making it difficult to trust information sources and fostering hatred.
The Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023 stunned the world. In this timely conversation, political scientist Ian Bremmer explains the historical context of the conflict, how Israel might respond and what it means for Jews, Palestinians and the world at large. Listen in for analysis of the unprecedented events, how the US may factor into the global response and how to find reliable information amid the breathless media coverage and the fog of war. (This interview, hosted by TED's head of curation Helen Walters, was recorded on October 9, 2023.)