UBS On-Air: Market Moves Signal over Noise with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
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Oct 5, 2025 Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi dives into how government shutdowns are often just market noise, with little impact on GDP. A significant Pfizer deal is spotlighted, linking tariff relief to lower drug prices and boosting pharmaceutical investments. The transformative role of AI in healthcare is explored, emphasizing its potential to cut drug development costs. Finally, attention is drawn to OpenAI’s Developer Day, which may signal shifts in consumer engagement and advertising strategies.
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Shutdowns Are Mostly Market Noise
- Government shutdowns historically have minimal market impact and rarely move bonds or equities materially.
- Markets view the current shutdown as noise with limited economic damage and likely resolution before Oct 15.
Military Pay Timetable Pressures A Deal
- The timing of unpaid military personnel creates political pressure to resolve funding gaps quickly.
- UBS expects a resolution before October 15th, reducing downside risk to markets.
Pharma Deal Signals Policy Playbook
- The Pfizer–US government deal pairs lower drug prices and onshore investment with tariff relief, creating a new policy playbook.
- This removes uncertainty for pharma pricing and tariffs and may trigger sector re-rating.