HousingWire Daily Why we may never see the October jobs data
Nov 14, 2025
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst specializing in housing and labor-market analysis, dives into the potential absence of October's jobs data, highlighting political and logistical factors at play. He discusses how alternative metrics like IRS tax receipts can gauge the economy in the absence of official reports. Logan also addresses the challenges of small business hiring amidst low wage growth and critiques the NAR's first-time buyer survey for its methodology. He concludes with insights on how immigration and demographics shape the future of the labor market.
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Question Fed Rhetoric, Inspect Their Models
- Logan Mohtashami doubts rapid shifts in Fed officials' public views and warns inconsistent models undermine credibility.
- He urges scrutinizing models behind forecasts, not just the headline statements from policymakers.
Politics Can Censor Economic Releases
- Logan outlines political and logistical reasons the October jobs data might not be released, beyond simple desire to hide bad news.
- He connects tariffs, Supreme Court timing, and stimulus moves as reasons the administration might avoid publishing sensitive reports now.
Anticipate Fed Concern Over Fiscal Stimulus
- Expect the Fed to view stimulus checks and tariff policies as inflationary and factor that into rate decisions.
- Don't assume headline political moves will automatically translate into easier monetary policy.