IL44: From AI Hype to Transformative AGI ft. Aubrie Pagano

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Dec 31, 2025

Aubrie Pagano, a venture capitalist and former founder at Alpaca VC, discusses the evolution from AI hype to transformative AGI. She highlights major barriers like energy demands, data gaps, and coordination issues between AI and humans. Aubrie introduces the concept of the 'Aquarius Economy,' where human agency becomes a scarce asset. She suggests we may need one to two capital cycles to achieve true AGI, emphasizing that these delays present unique investment opportunities in areas like skilled labor and energy solutions.

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INSIGHT

AGI Needs Cheap, Utility‑Level Compute

AGI will be meaningful only if compute and inference become cheap and abundant like a utility.
Aubrie Pagano thinks we may be a capital cycle or two away from that reality due to coordination frictions.

INSIGHT

Energy Is A Hard Constraint On AI Scaling

AI scaling is fundamentally constrained by stable, high-density power and grid capacity.
Data centers and leading AI firms already forecast massive new power demand that current grids struggle to meet.

ADVICE

Back Power And Grid Resilience Now

Invest in firm power, grid resiliency, and behind‑the‑meter optimization to remove AI bottlenecks.
Target technologies like nuclear, geothermal, demand response, and compute optimization as practical plays.

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In this Ideas Lab episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with venture capitalist and former founder Aubrie Pagano about what stands between today’s AI hype and a truly transformative AGI economy. Rather than treating AI as destiny, Aubrie maps the frictions that hold it back: hard power limits, fragile industrial data, and agents that still cannot coordinate with humans or each other. She explains why we may be a full capital cycle or two away from real AGI and why that delay is precisely where the best opportunities lie. The conversation then widens into the “Aquarius Economy,” a possible future in which human agency, not algorithms, becomes the scarcest and most valuable asset.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why agent coordination is still clunky and unreliable

00:38 - Intro to Top Traders Unplugged and performance risk framing

01:34 - Kevin sets up the Ideas Lab and today’s focus on AGI

02:59 - Aubrie’s background as founder, researcher and VC shaping her lens

06:04 - Why she wrote about AGI and the Aquarius Economy

07:21 - AGI as the last cycle built on labor scarcity

10:41 - The blockers framework and why AGI may be a cycle or two away

12:58 - Blocker 1: energy constraints and the race for firm power

15:17 - Where investment opportunities emerge in power and grid resilience

17:43 - Blocker 2: foundational industry data gaps and Moravec’s paradox

22:00 - Skilled trades as a bottleneck and a long term opportunity

24:34 - Blocker 3: agent to human coordination and walled gardens

29:04 - Early agent marketplaces and trust mechanisms

34:41 - The Aquarius Economy as a framework for future societal structure

42:09 - Outlier groups, human agency and implications for investors

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