The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 336. What Recession? Making Sense of (Constantly) Revised Macro Data & What it Means for CRE with Danielle DiMartino Booth & Dan McNamara
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Jun 24, 2025 
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Federal Reserve insider, joins Dan McNamara, Founder of Polpo Capital, to analyze the shifting macro landscape. They dissect the implications of possible rate cuts and the persistent 'higher for longer' interest narrative on commercial real estate. Their insights cover the mixed signals of economic data, the challenges in the lodging sector, and the transformative role of AI in shaping industry strategies. Dive into the complexities of the CMBS market and the evolving dynamics between asset types.
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Fed Poised for July Rate Cut
- The Fed narrative flipped quickly after the June meeting, moving from 'higher for longer' to opening possibility for a July rate cut.
- Job losses and rising credit stress are prompting hawkish Fed officials to support earlier easing than expected.
Consumer Squeeze Pressures CRE
- Financing is drying up for residential rentals and Airbnb-like properties amid higher essential costs squeezing consumers.
- This will increase pressure on retail and lodging CRE sectors due to decreased consumer spending and oversupply risks.
Student Loan Fallout Risks Economy
- Paying back student loans will reduce discretionary spending by a critical cohort, impacting credit and housing markets.
- This demographic's financial strain could deepen the recession and affect commercial lending and consumer behavior.