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UBS On-Air: Market Moves
Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - First-Half Review
Jun 11, 2024
Leslie Falconio and John Murtagh of UBS CIO discuss fixed income performance drivers, rate volatility, Fed rate cut expectations, upcoming FOMC meeting, US monetary policy, and recommendations for fixed income investors in agency MBS, investment-grade corporates, tips, treasuries, and munis for incremental income and price appreciation.
12:11
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Quick takeaways
- Market reacts to economic data like CPI for Treasury yield changes.
- High-quality fixed income assets advised for total return amidst rate cut expectations.
Deep dives
First Half Fixed Income Performance and Market Sensitivity to Economic Data
The podcast discussed the significant re-pricing of the Fed's rate cut expectations, leading to upward pressure on treasury yields in the first half of 2024. The market, highly sensitive to economic data, particularly CPI announcements, reacted swiftly, with most of the rise in 10-year yields occurring around CPI releases. Despite volatility, rates fell in May due to a better-than-expected CPI report, hinting at possible lower rates in the second half.
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