Iowa Republican Strategist David Kochel joins Chuck to detail former President Trump's firm hold on Iowa and his rivals' determination to pull an upset. They discuss the potential consequences of Trump winning Iowa, Nikki Haley's potential challenges, and the role of endorsements and local media. They also talk about the rise of women's sports, the political transformation of Iowa, and the factors that may impact potential candidates' success in the Iowa caucus.
Trump's widespread support in Iowa could make it difficult for any candidate to challenge him one-on-one.
Higher turnout in the Iowa caucuses generally benefits Trump, while lower turnout creates opportunities for other candidates.
Deep dives
Trump's potential back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire
President Trump could make history as the first non-incumbent Republican to win both Iowa and New Hampshire back to back. This raises questions about the significance of second-place candidates and the potential influence of low or high voter turnout on the results.
The importance of margin and second place
If Trump wins but receives less than 50 percent of the vote, it may indicate that more than half of Republican voters in his strongest state want another nominee. However, if Trump wins with over 50 percent of the vote, it could demonstrate his widespread support and make it difficult for anyone to challenge him one-on-one. Second place matters for Nikki Haley, as a strong finish could potentially lead to the withdrawal of DeSantis and winning New Hampshire.
The role of evangelicals and local support
The Iowa caucuses have a history of surprising upsets, particularly influenced by the evangelical vote. While DeSantis has the backing of influential figures like Bob Vander Plaats and Governor Kim Reynolds, Trump has amassed the support of a large number of faith leaders. The division within the evangelical vote could impact the results. Furthermore, Trump's lack of local support from prominent figures might create challenges for DeSantis.
Factors affecting turnout and the changing Iowa Republican electorate
Turnout in the Iowa caucuses will play a significant role in determining the outcome of the race. Higher turnout is generally advantageous for Trump, while lower turnout creates opportunities for other candidates. The Republican electorate in Iowa has undergone changes over the years, with a shift towards a more male-dominated and conservative base that aligns with Trump's messaging. Local media and endorsements have a limited impact on the race, with conservative media preferring to maintain a pro-Trump stance.
Iowa Republican Strategist David Kochel joins Chuck with just over a week to go until the first GOP contest of 2024 to detail former President Trump's firm hold on the Hawkeye State — and his rivals' determination to pull an upset.
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